Division 1 Edition
As the college hockey season heads into the last weekend before playoffs, we thought it would be a great time to release our 2016 Recruiting Class Analysis. This is used by our scouting staff internally to grade our performance and make improvements for the following season. We study the areas we were successful, the areas we were wrong and look for any patterns or biases that we can identify and improve upon.
“We are very happy with our results, especially considering it was our first full season last year,” remarked Neutral Zone President, Steve Wilk. “We have a tremendous scouting staff with a lot of experience and talent. They were able to find the top prospects throughout North America and rank them accurately. Looking back a year later, it’s pretty impressive.”
2016 Star Rating Results
Below is a chart that shows the star rating breakdown, by percentage, of graduating players last season. A graduating player is defined by either a 1995 birth year player or a ’96-’98 who is enrolling in college before they age out of junior hockey.
The star rating process is an intensive process where regional scouts do most of the work, discover the players and then Head Scouts or Director of Scouting (or both) cross reference and give them a star rating based on a national perspective.
Many weekends throughout the season Neutral Zone will have all 30 scouts on the road. The efforts have produced compelling data to show that 3.5 stars and above are D1 players (for the most part), and 3.25 star prospects and down are predominately D3 prospects.
| Rating | D1% | D3 % | CIS/Other |
|
5 |
100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.75 | 100 | 0 |
0 |
|
4.5 |
100 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.25 | 100 | 0 |
0 |
|
4 |
98.8 | 0 | 1.2 |
|
3.75 |
97.7 | 0 |
2.3 |
| 3.5 | 95.5 | 0.4 |
4.1 |
|
3.25 |
13.3 | 74.4 | 12.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 85.6 |
9.9 |
|
2.75 |
0 | 96.7 | 3.3 |
| 2.5 | 0 | 97.4 |
2.6 |
|
2.25 |
0 | 91.2 | 8.8 |
|
2 |
0 | 67.8 |
22.2 |
The Best of the Star Ratings
Here we will take a look at the top players in each star rating. We adjusted the number of candidates to better represent the group; obviously, the higher the star rating the less players there are. For example, there were less than ten 5 star rated players in this recruiting class and over one hundred 3.5 stars. We will go from 5 star players to 3.5. Keep in mind these rankings were made BEFORE the NHL Draft and BEFORE the current season began.
One of the most interesting findings was the lower you go in star ratings, the higher percentage of older players (1995 & 1996’s) who have had strong freshman years. The average age for a 5 star freshman was 18, the average age for a 4 star freshman was just over 19 years old and the average for a 3.5 star freshman was 20 years old.
Neutral Zone Director of Scouting, Brendan Collins admitted the breakdown of star rating data by birth year compared to freshman production was “eye-opening.”
“I think when you look at players like Brogan Rafferty and Ian Scheid, these were both 3.5 star prospects who were immediate impact players on their teams. When I look at the reports from last year I see a lot positive things being said about them, but then see comments like ‘but he’s old,’ or ‘he should be good he’s a 20-year-old playing against 17 years olds.’ That is an unfair bias in the scouting world and we see that bias in our data. Our most undervalued players were 1995’s and 1996’s when you look at it as a whole.”
Collins said the scouting staff has made corrective measures for the 2017 class and removed the “over-age bias” from their scouting and rankings.
5 Stars
Top 5 Candidates: Clayton Keller (BU), Tyson Jost (ND), Trent Frederic (Wisconsin), Dante Fabbro (BU), Adam Fox (Harvard)
Winner: Clayton Keller (BU)
Runner Up: Trent Frederic (Wisconsin)
4.75 Stars
Top 10 Candidates: Sheldon Rempal (Clarkson), Joey Anderson (Minnesota-Duluth), Jeremy Davies (Northeastern), Ross Colton (UVM), Adam Huska (UConn), Rem Pitlick (Minnesota), Tanner Laczynski (Ohio St), Ben Blacker (Western Michigan), Andrew Peeke (Notre Dame), Dennis Cholowski (St. Cloud)
**Scott Conway was 4.75 star but is a transfer student so does not make our list
Winner: Tanner Laczynski (Ohio St)
Runner Up: Ben Blacker (Western Michigan)
4.5 Stars
Top 15 Candidates: Jack Ahcan (St. Cloud), Joseph Woll (BC), Jake Oettinger (BU), Carson Meyer (Ohio St), Chase Pearson (Maine), Patrick Harper (BU), Patrick Khodorenko (Michigan St), Ryan Lindgren (Minnesota), Darien Craighead (Northern Michigan), David Cotton (Boston College), Denis Smirnov (Penn St), Jacob Bryson (Providence), Nathan Sucese (Penn St), Mattias Goransson (UMass Lowell), William Lockwood (Michigan), Henrik Borgstrom (Denver)
Winner: Denis Smirnov (Penn St)
Runner Up: Jake Oettinger (BU) & Henrik Borgstrom (Denver)
**Honorable Mentions: Ryan Shea (Northeastern), Matt Filipe (Northeastern), Cam Morrison (Notre Dame), Parker Tuomie (Minnesota St), Cam Lee (Western Michigan), Hugh McGing (Western Michigan), James Sanchez (Michigan)
4.25 Stars
Top 15 Candidates: Trevor Hamilton (Penn St), Colton Poolman (North Dakota), Alec Rauhauser (Bowling Green), Vimal Sukumaran (Providence), Matt Hoover (Canisius), Taro Hirose (Michigan St), Jonathan Desbiens (Bentley), Lucas Brown (Union), Jake Kielly (Clarkson), Brandon Duhaime (Providence), Connor Moore (BC), John Marino (Harvard), Wade Allison (Western Michigan), Ronnie Hein (Ohio St), Brandon Biro (Penn St)
Winner: Trevor Hamilton (Penn St)
Runner Up: Wade Allsion (Western Michigan)
4.0 Stars
Top 25 Candidates: Tyler Wall (UMass Lowell), Joe Rutkowski (Ferris St), Joseph Duszak (Mercyhurst), Josh Wilkins (Providence), Kris Myllari (Penn St), Luke Morgan (Lake Superior), Michael Davies (Denver), Patrick Shea (Maine), Tory Dello (Notre Dame), Ryan Larkin (Miami-Ohio) Nico Sturm (Clarkson), Jakob Stridsberg (Arizona St), Jeffrey Smith (St. Cloud), Zackarias Skog (AIC), Andrew Shortridge (Quinnipiac), Hunter Miska (Minnesota Duluth), Marc Michaelis (Minnesota St), Devin Brosseau (Clarkson), Jake Slaker (Michigan), Jackson Cressey (Princeton), Matt Alvaro (UVM), Nathan Krusko (Harvard), Stefanos Lekkas (UVM), Tyler Busch (Arizona St), JD Greenway (Wisconsin)
Winner: Hunter Miska (Minnesota Duluth)
Runner Up: Marc Michaelis (Minnesota St)
**Honorable Mentions: Cameron Clarke (Ferris St), Gavin Gould (Michigan Tech), Haralds Egle (Clarkson),
3.75 Stars
Top 25 Candidates: Alexander Berardinelli (Colorado), Zach Evancho (Army), Brayden Gelsinger (Lake Superior), Nick Hutchison (Canisius), Justin Kapelmaster (Ferris St), Derek Lodermeier (UVM), Adam Winborg (Michigan), Bobby McMann (Colgate), Brendan Van Riemsdyk (UNH), Charlie Barrow (Holy Cross), Gordi Myer (Ohio St), Hayden Lavigne (Michigan), Matt Stief (Canisius), Patrick Curry (BU), Patrick Grasso (UNH), Ryan Lohin (UMass Lowell), Ryner Gorowsky (Bentley), William Graber (Dartmouth), Ben Finkelstein (St. Lawrence), Jacob Hayhurst (RPI), Carlis Cutske (Quinnipiac), Nathaniel Kallen (Ferris St), Ryan Smith (Maine), Shane Bear (UMass Amherst), Zach Whitecloud (Bemidji St)
**Chase Perry was a 3.75 star prospect but played at Colorado College before RPI so he’s not included on this list.
Winner: Justin Kapelmaster (Ferris St)
Runner Up: Ryan Lohin (UMass Lowell) & Patrick Grasso (UNH)
3.5 Stars
Top 30 Candidates: Philip Beaulieu (Northern Michigan), Kristofer Bindulis (Lake Superior), Angus Redmond (Michigan Tech), Alex Smith (Michigan Tech), Ian Scheid (Minnesota State), Troy Van Tetering (Alaska Fairbanks), Aidan Pelino (Bentley), Brett Orr (Bentley), Blake Christiansen (AIC), Patrick Holway (Maine), Mitchell Fossier (Maine), Luke Lynch (Robert Morris), Cameron Strong (Dartmouth), Jesse Pereira (Canisius), Max Humitz (Lake Superior), Colin Saccoman (Lake Superior), Brady Tomlak (Air Force), Jared Cockerill (Colgate), John Snodgrass (Colgate), Ryan Kruper (RIT), Brent Beaudoin (Brown), Vito Bavaro (Sacred Heart), Brogan Lafferty (Quinnipiac), Sami Tavernier (Merrimack), Johnny Kovacevic (Merrimack), Noah Delmas (Niagara), Derek Brown (Niagara), Dominic Franco (Army), Brendan Soucie (Army), Carson Gicewicz (St. Lawrence)
Winner: Brogan Rafferty (Quinnipiac)
Runner Up: Johnny Kovacevic (Merrimack) & Ian Scheid (Minnesota St)
Recruiting Class Rankings vs. Freshman Success
While there are several different factors that determine a “successful” freshman class, we took a look at our 2016 Top 15 NCAA Recruiting Class Rankings. We analyzed freshman scoring, freshman save percentage and other statistical metrics to gauge success among freshman classes. There is not one metric to use, for example freshman scoring could be more of a reflection of opportunity than ability. A freshman will have a better opportunity to get top six minutes and power play time on a sub .500 team than they would on a national contender. An example of this would be AIC, who leads the country in freshman scoring this season. The same could be said in the opposit; a freshman goalies save percentage is heavily impacted by the players in front of them, so more talented goalies on weaker teams tend to have worse statistics than lesser goalies on greater teams.
The Top 15 Recruiting Class Rankings show some teams who took a big step forward this season with freshman having a major influence such as BU, Western Michigan, UVM and Minnesota Duluth. We also see some teams that had a lot of success last year who were able to fill holes and maintain their competitiveness despite key departures or big senior classes such as Boston College, St. Cloud, North Dakota, UMass Lowell and Providence. We also see teams like Michigan, Miami and Northeastern who were all Top 10 recruiting classes but haven’t had the success on the ice. For Michigan and Miami this is understandable as over 1/3 of their teams are freshman and Michigan sent most of their key players to the NHL last season. For Northeastern, it goes back to an opportunity issue, they didn’t graduate a ton last season and have a lot of solid sophomores, juniors and seniors playing key roles.
Top 15 Recruiting Classes Breakdown
- Boston University: 2nd in Freshman scoring, 3rd in Freshman SV%. Top two point leaders are freshman, starting goalie is a freshman and two of the top four defenseman are freshman. They also lead the country in Freshman game winning goals (10). Ranked #6 in the country in USCHO Poll as one of the youngest teams in college hockey history.
- Michigan: 15th in Freshman scoring, 15th in Freshman SV%, Three of the top five scorers on the team and two split time goalies are freshman. Unranked
- Miami Ohio: 23rd in Freshman scoring, 14th in Freshman SV%. Two of the top six scorers are freshman including the team’s starting goalie. Twelve Freshman have seen ice time this season. Unranked
- Providence: 7th in Freshman scoring (4th if you include Conway). Five of the top ten scorers are freshman or first year Providence players. Ranked #10 in the Country in USCHO Poll
- Boston College: 6th in Freshman scoring, 12th in Freshman SV%. All twelve freshman have seen ice time this season. Ranked #14th in the country in USCHO Poll.
- Penn State: 3rd in Freshman scoring ,18th in Freshman SV%. Leading scorer is a freshman as well as three of the top six scorers. Starting goalie is a freshman. Ranked #11th in USCHO Poll.
- North Dakota: 18th in Freshman scoring. Three of top ten scorers are freshman. Ranked #16th in USCHO Poll.
- Minnesota Duluth: 3rd in Freshman SV%. Starting goalie is a freshman as well as the teams third leading point scorer. Ranked #2 in USCHO Poll.
- Northeastern: Two of the top four scoring defense are freshman and two of the top seven scorers are freshman. Unranked
- Western Michigan: 26th in Freshman scoring, 5th in Freshman SV%. Second leading scorer on the team is a freshman as well as their starting goaltender. Ranked #8 in USCHO Poll.
- St. Cloud: 17th in Freshman scoring, 21st in Freshman SV%. Six of the top 15 scorers are freshman, and both starting goalies are either freshman or first year players at St. Cloud. Their best two defenseman are freshman and the team ranks #18 in the USCHO Poll.
- Michigan St: 26th in Freshman scoring. Three of the top five scorers are freshman and they have had 9 of their freshman see ice time this season. Unranked.
- Clarkson: 10th in Freshman scoring, 10th in Freshman SV%. Three of the top six scorers are freshman as is the starting goaltender. Unranked.
- UMass Lowell: 23rd in Freshman scoring, 9th in Freshman SV%. Three of the top nine scorers are freshman and the starting goalie is a freshman. The team is ranked #5 in the country on USCHO Poll.
- Vermont: 11th in Freshman scoring, 13th in Freshman SV%. Leading scorer and starting goalie are both freshman. Team is ranked #15 in USCHO Poll.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images