Feature Story

Neutral Zone is pleased to announce our Top 500 NCAA Eligible Prospect Rankings for the 1996 birth year. Last year we only ranked the top 100 in each age group but we decided to extend our rankings this year after growing the scouting staff from 10 to 30. We will be leaving the old list on the National Rankings Page for scouts and fans to look back on before uploading this new list.

“We attended the AHCA Coaches Convention this summer and the most consistent feedback we received was that Division II/III coaches wanted a more expansive list for their 20 year old prospects,” remarked President Steve Wilk. “Looking at the data from last year we saw that over 600 incoming freshmen were 20-year old’s and so we shifted our focus this fall to accommodate that trend. We are starting with this list of 500 as our preliminary list, similar to NHL Central Scouting, and we will make additions, subtractions and edits as the season progresses. Our midterm ranking will be in the middle of January and the final ranking will be in the end of March.

Each player has been seen and evaluated by the Neutral Zone scouting staff. NZ scouts were busy this fall covering the USHL Fall Classic’s, BCHL Showcase, SJHL Showcase, AJHL Showcase, EHL Showcase, USPHL Showcase, NAHL Showcase and GOJHL Showcase including individual games. “The only way this list is possible to construct is if you have a large, highly competent scouting staff,” remarked Director of Scouting Brendan Collins. “I want to thank all of our scouts, but in particular, Brian Murphy, who was the longtime Head Coach at Tufts University and Marlin Muylaert who has been a Head Coach both at the CIS and NCAA level.  These guys have been in rinks all fall building this list and organizing regional scouts to make sure we saw as many prospects as possible.”

One of the things we preach at Neutral Zone is to avoid any bias or ego. The staff puts a lot of man hours and discussions in the scouting room about where these players are ranked, but in no way is this the final list. All of these players will be followed and evaluated more throughout the season and any changes or movements will be reflected in each player’s profile page.

With that being said, 100% of incoming college freshman this past year that we ranked 3.75 or higher committed Division 1. We saw over 95% of our 3.5 star prospects commit Division 1 as well. It is at the 3.25 – 3.0 category that we see the real drop off, as less than 15% of those players committed Division 1. Every year brings different recruiting patterns and trends, but we feel 3.5’s and upward are Division 1 prospects, 3.25’s are on the fringe and 3.0 star prospects and below are Division II/III. Obviously, like anything, there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, but our 2015-2016 statistics support this basic framework.

**Disclaimer: There are a lot of players on this list from Canadian junior leagues. Given the current economy and exchange rates between the US and Canadian dollar, there will likely be a decent percentage of these players who do not end up playing college hockey.  We also see trends in the Midwest and Western US, where Division II/III hockey isn’t as prevalent, that quality players who fall short of Division I stop playing or go the club route. This creates opportunities for other players in leagues that we didn’t cover in this list such as the WSHL, NA3HL and USPHL Elite, to name a few.

League Breakdown

 What we see in this chart is a breakdown of where the players are coming from. We see that the NAHL represents a quarter of the players which makes sense because the league is large and has a lot of older, veteran junior players. Contrast that to the USHL where they are only allowed four 1996’s per team. Therefore, this is not reflective of which league is “better.”

Positions

 This data simply shows the position breakdown of our list. On a typical hockey team the roster consists of 60% forwards, 30% defense and 10% goalies so we tried to stay close to that breakdown without impacting the quality of the list.

Commits

This chart shows the breakdown of Division 1 committed players versus uncommitted players. One of the areas we are trying to add awareness to is that only around 175 players at the 20-year-old age group went on to play Division 1 last year. We anticipate that only the top 35% will go Division 1 and nearly half of them are already committed.

Star Rating Breakdown

This last chat breaks down the different star ratings that exists on our list. Why so few 4 stars and upward? A lot of this is because the top prospects were taken at 18, then 19 and so only a few are left playing junior hockey by 20. Some are transfers, some need extra time to improve their academics and some are just taking another year to get bigger and stronger and faster.  The data shows that only 55 players or 11% of the list are sure-fire D1 prospects. The group of 3.5-star prospects accounts for 80 players or 16% of the list. Therefore, if all the 3.5 star prospects and above commit Division 1 then that would account for only 27% of the total list.

Top 500 NCAA Eligible Prospects in North America Born in 1996

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NeutralZone attended the Boston Junior Eagles U16 Showcase at Providence College and Northeastern University on October 15-16.  Four of the top U16 teams in the country were part of the showcase (Boston Junior Eagles, Honeybaked, Chicago Mission and North Jersey Avalanche).

The level of play throughout the weekend was high even though most teams played four games in two days. Below is a listing of the top players on the weekend. Note: no distinction was made between 00’ and 01’ birthdays (although some 01’s were the standout players).

Alex Turcotte (Chicago Mission, 5’10/190, 2/26/01) – Had an extremely strong weekend. Was in a class by himself for much of the showcase. Strong lower half allows for superior balance and skating. Gets up to speed in a few steps effortlessly. Can beat defenders wide with speed and although he does not have a large frame, uses his body well. Plays an aggressive, slashing style and does not hesitate to drive to the net. Always around the puck in the offensive zone and finishes well. Uses his teammates well and at times is too unselfish. Smart player that is always in position and frequently finds the soft-spots on the ice. The puck seems to follow him around the ice. Grade: A

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Neutral Zone headed to Wayne, NJ for the annual NJ Hitmen Classic on October 6-9, 2016. Our focus for this report was the Premier Division. All 10 teams played three games each. The games were played under regular season rules and counted in the standings.

The overall play was good. The event was well run and attended by some Division I college scouts and lots of Division III schools. Games were played on two rinks, many at the same time. We did some “bouncing” but mostly tried to watch entire games.

The players noted here stood out for mostly positive reasons. The grades are in relation to the other players noted. We were in attendance for all four days of the showcase.

A

Tomas Psenicka (6’4”/208lbs; NJ Hitmen, #66, late ’98; F)-The 1998 from the Czech Republic is a new addition to Neutral Zone. He was impressive here. He can make quick, simple plays on line rushes. He is tough and played hard. He showed a quick, hard shot. Tomas is hard to handle once he gets going. He must learn to use his body more to get to the net and his first step needs some work. He was, however, one of the best players this weekend.

Matt Thomson (6’1”/195lbs; IHC, #15, ’98; F)- Our knock on Matt last season at Reading HS was his play away from the puck and his overall consistency shift to shift. He has improved a lot in both areas. He is working hard away from the puck and in all three zones. His skating and strength look improved. Matt showed his quick stick, shot and touch around the net. He scored one goal on a rebound from a near possible angle. His game is rounding out nicely with the IHC and he is clearly one of the best players in the league. College: Northeastern

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The USHL Fall Classic U16 Tournament didn’t disappoint with the caliber of teams and talent from around the country.  The high end field displayed many teams that have the capability to compete for a U16 USA Hockey Tier 1 National Title next spring.  Don’t be surprised if there is 7-9 teams in this field that are consistently ranked in the top 20 in the country throughout the 2016-17 season.  The tournament was won by the Minnesota Blades, a team that competes in the Fall made up of some of the top players in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area.  The Blades played a very consistent tournament and were able to hold off the Chicago Mission and Honeybaked in the Semifinals and Finals respectively.  An early U16 Tournament can bring some challenges for the 01’s as they compete against older players for the first time.  As the year goes on, look for some of the 01’s to move up in our rank in future Neutral Zone reports.

Alex Turcotte (L, Chicago Mission, ‘01) –  High end talent with all the tools.  Solid size and strength with a skill set to go along with it.  A strong and powerful skater who can separate from defenders.  He can make plays on the rush or pick teams apart below the dots in tight areas. For an ’01 to make such a seamless transition to midget hockey says a lot about where his game is at. A shoe-in NTDP Camp Invite. College: Wisconsin  Grade: A

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Neutral Zone headed to Minnesota for the annual NAHL Showcase. The scouts gathered in flocks once again in Blaine, MN to see the North American Hockey League’s annual gathering. The country’s only Tier II hockey league has had a knack for producing many Division I and Division III players that shine in their collegiate careers. The showcase displays regular season games, but some teams are still in a preseason mode and trying to sort out their rosters as players are showing up from the USHL daily. It’s early in the year and things will change during the season, but here are the players that had good weekends for themselves in front of the scouts.

The list of 200 players is sorted by teams. Grades reflect performance only here at the showcase and are simply in relation to the other players listed below. For example, a “C-“ player here is not a “C-“ player in the NAHL, simply in this group of 200. All players below have a link to their player profile.

One note: We had very limited viewing of Coulee Region (just how the schedule worked out) and thus only one player is noted.

We were in Blaine for every game of the showcase. We will be attending more NAHL games all season and will have game reports for each one. These evaluations are just the beginning. It looks like it is going to be a good year for the NAHL and we will have it all covered.

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Neutral Zone headed to Springfield, MA to check out the Rifles East/West invite. We focused on the U16 division as it was a quick tournament and the U18 group was up the road in Amherst.

Games were two 22.5 minute halves on day one and one 30 minute half on day two. The River Rats took home the championship over Mid Fairfield 1-0. It was a good experience with a lot of talent. We felt comfortable writing something about 50 or so players. About 1/2 of those below are new additions to Neutral Zone.

We recognize that these guys are young and playing a possible 120 plus minutes of hockey in 36 hours is not easy. We account for that and as you will read, we have very little negative to say about this age group. If a player appears on this list, it means they had a good tournament overall and grades simply distinguish between those players this specific weekend.
A sample of the scouting reports mentioned below………..
Zachary Rehbaum (L, 5’10”/165lbs; Buffalo Regals, ‘00)-He was perhaps the best overall player in the invite. Zachary is strong on his skates and has terrific edges. He played a tough, skilled, fast game and created offense in a multitude of ways. He has a quick, accurate shot. He gets to the front of the net for rebounds and tips. The winger is good off the cycle and in transition. One play, he stole the puck vs. the Rifles. He used his speed to push the D into a bad gap. He then snapped a shot “bar down” short side. The 2000 also plays with just enough “nasty” to irritate and create even more space without taking bad penalties. He was excellent and committed to Brown very soon after this event. College: Brown Grade: A

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