Nikita Pavlov (RW, L, 5’11”, 160, Dinamo-Shinnik Bobruysk (MHL), 06/10/2007)
Draft Year: 2025 (First-Year Eligible)
Strengths: Why Pavlov Should Be Drafted
- Offensive Awareness and Playmaking IQ
Strong offensive instincts and high-end hockey sense allow him to create chances despite his limited ice time.
1.4 Grade “A” scoring chances per game – he knows how to find soft areas in coverage and generate high-danger opportunities.
86% passing completion rate with 0.84 passes leading directly to a shot per game shows good vision and ability to find teammates in scoring areas.
Performed exceptionally well with Belarus U18 (8 points in 5 games) and U17 (10 points in 7 games) he can take over games against his age group. - Strong Puck Control and Creativity
Pavlov’s ability to work in tight spaces is evident, especially at the junior international level.
Handles the puck well in transition, using his quick hands to create offensive opportunities.
Versus his own age group he has shown a quick release and good finishing ability when given time and space (14% conversion rate on Grade “A” scoring chances). - Effective in Limited Minutes and Power Play Threat
Averaging just 12:55 of total ice time per game yet producing efficiently shows he has a knack for maximizing his offensive touches.
1:40 of power-play time per game suggests his coaches trust him in offensive situations.
Has shown he can produce at a high level against his age group, which indicates he may have untapped offensive upside with more development. - Youngest Player on Dinamo-Shinnik Bobruysk (MHL) and Producing Respectably
Being the youngest player on his MHL team and holding a +6 rating speaks to his ability to compete against older, stronger players in a pro-style environment.
His experience playing in the MHL—a league that develops top KHL and NHL prospects— is valuable for his long-term projection.
Weaknesses: Why Pavlov Might Not Be Drafted
- Serious Strength and Physical Development Concerns
160 lbs at 5’11” is significantly undersized for pro hockey.
40% win rate on 50/50 puck battles – he struggles against stronger players in contested situations.
1.4 takeaways per game and 5.4 giveaways per game highlight his lack of strength when battling for possession.
Needs to add lower-body strength and explosiveness to improve his board battles and ability to drive the net effectively. - Lack of Defensive Impact and Competitiveness in Puck Battles
Only 0.12 penalties drawn per game is concerning for a player who likes to play with the puck on his stick—it suggests he isn’t playing with enough intensity to force opponents into mistakes.
Not trusted in faceoffs (1.65 per game, 37% win rate), meaning he lacks the physicality or hand strength to win draws effectively.
Limited defensive impact (only 1.07 takeaways per game) and a low 50/50 battle win rate – he needs to become more engaged without the puck. - High Number of Blocked and Missed Shots
1.05 shots blocked per game is far too high for a skilled offensive forward—he needs to add deception and change his release point.
0.4 shots missed the net per game is concerning for player who has produced goals versus his age group.
Final Verdict: Draftable or Not?
Projected Late-Round Pick (6th-7th Round) / Priority Free Agent
Why Draft Him?
Youngest player on his MHL team and still producing respectably.
High-end offensive awareness and playmaking ability.
Efficient in limited ice time and excels against his age group internationally.
Power-play upside and strong puck skills could translate to a middle-six scoring role.
Why Not Draft Him?
Lack of strength and physicality is a major concern.
Struggles to win battles against bigger, stronger opponents.
Defensive engagement and intensity are inconsistent.
Needs to improve shooting deception and overall shot selection.
Projection:
Best-Case NHL Upside: Middle-six offensive winger with strong playmaking ability.
Most Likely Path: Another year or two in the MHL, potential KHL promotion, possible NHL free-agent signing if he adds strength and improves his two-way game.
Draft Range: 6th-7th Round / Undrafted Free Agent with offensive upside.
Conclusion:
Nikita Pavlov is a high-skill offensive winger with strong playmaking ability but serious concerns about his physicality and defensive engagement. His production at the international level and in the MHL at a young age is promising, but unless he gains strength and learns to play through contact more effectively, he may not have a long-term NHL trajectory. A late-round draft-and-develop project or a priority free-agent signing if he continues to develop.