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OHL: Jack Nesbitt

Jack Nesbitt (C, L, 6’4″, 185, Windsor Spitfires, 01/12/2007)

Jack Nesbitt is a prototypical power forward center with an impressive combination of size, skating ability, and a developing offensive skillset. At 6’4″, his frame and reach make him a challenging matchup for opponents, especially when he uses his body to protect the puck rather than exposing the puck trying to make high risk plays. While he demonstrates flashes of high-end potential, his lack of consistent physical engagement, suboptimal finishing, and moderate playmaking currently limit his effectiveness. Nesbitt’s ability to develop explosiveness in his skating, improve his offensive efficiency, and enhance his physical presence will determine whether he can evolve into a reliable NHL middle-six center.

Strengths

Size and Strength:
Nesbitt’s 6’4″, 185-pound frame gives him natural leverage in puck battles and allows him to protect the puck effectively in all three zones.
He is hard to knock off the puck and uses his size to shield opponents and drive to the net.
He draws 0.61 penalties per game, showcasing his ability to battle through contact and force opponents into mistakes.

Skating Ability:
Nesbitt is a smooth, powerful skater with long strides that allow him to cover the ice quickly. While his first-step explosiveness could improve, his top-end speed and balance are strengths.
His agility and edge work are solid for a player his size, allowing him to adjust well in transition and contribute offensively.

Offensive Tools:
Nesbitt generates 2.5 grade “A” scoring opportunities per game, a testament to his strong hockey IQ and positioning in the offensive zone.
His wrist shot has both power and deception, and he can release it quickly, especially off the rush or from the top of the circle.
He retrieves 2.7 loose pucks after shots per game, demonstrating strong puck anticipation and a nose for offensive opportunities.

Competitiveness:
Nesbitt brings a consistent, high compete level, battling hard in traffic and fighting to maintain possession.
His willingness to take hits and continue playing through physicality is a strong indicator of his durability and mental toughness.

Physical Engagement:
Nesbitt averages 1.30 hard hits per game, a number that we feel will be higher as he gains size, strength and explosiveness.
Improved strength will increase his physicality along the boards and in front of the net which will make him a more dominant force.

Defensive Play:
Nesbitt demonstrates a solid 200-foot game, positioning himself effectively in the defensive zone and taking smart effective routes on the forecheck.
He uses his reach to disrupt plays and steal pucks, averaging 4.8 takeaways per game.
He wins 50% of his face-offs, a decent baseline for a young center, though this area can still improve.

Areas for Improvement

Shooting Efficiency:
Despite generating a high number of grade “A” scoring chances, Nesbitt scores on just 13% of them. Improving his overall finishing ability will be critical to maximizing his offensive potential.

Passing and Playmaking:
Nesbitt completes 81% of his passes, which is below average for a player who spends significant time on the power play (3:21 per game). He must become more accurate and intentional with his puck distribution to enhance his playmaking impact.

First-Step Explosiveness:
While Nesbitt’s skating is strong overall, improving his first three steps would allow him to capitalize on loose pucks, accelerate out of traffic, and better separate from defenders on the rush.

Consistency in Compete Level:
Nesbitt has all the tools to dominate games, but he can occasionally appear tentative. He needs to bring consistent intensity and assertiveness to leverage his size and skill effectively.

Turnovers:
Nesbitt averages six giveaways per game, which is too high for a center who is expected to drive possession. Cleaning up his puck management, especially in transition when attacking the middle ice, will improve his overall impact on the game.

Projection
Jack Nesbitt projects as a middle-six, two-way NHL center with power-forward potential. His combination of size, skating ability, and offensive tools makes him an enticing prospect, but he must continue to develop his physicality, playmaking, and shooting efficiency to reach his ceiling. If he addresses these areas, he could become a reliable second- or third-line center capable of playing in all situations.

Draft Outlook
We currently have Nesbitt as a mid-to-late second round of the 2025 NHL Draft. Teams looking for a big, mobile center with strong offensive instincts and a high compete level will find him an intriguing option. His draft stock could rise significantly if he demonstrates improved physical engagement and offensive efficiency throughout the remainder of the 2024/25 season.

Player Comparison
Filip Chytil: Nesbitt’s size, defensive reliability, and potential as a two-way center mirror Chytil’s style of play. While Nesbitt has a long way to reach an NHLer’s consistency, his physical tools and hockey sense give him a similar foundation to build upon.

Key Development Goals

Increase Physicality: Use his size and strength more consistently to finish checks, dominate along the boards, and create space for himself and his linemates.
Refine Shooting Technique: Work on shot deception, accuracy, and release timing to convert a higher percentage of scoring chances.
Improve First-Step Explosiveness: Develop more power in his initial strides to gain separation and enhance his effectiveness in tight areas.
Enhance Passing Accuracy: Focus on cleaner puck distribution, especially under pressure, to reduce turnovers and create more scoring opportunities for his teammates.
Elevate Consistency: Bring a high level of engagement and intensity every game, ensuring he impacts play in all three zones.

Final Assessment
Jack Nesbitt’s size, skating, and offensive potential make him a highly intriguing prospect. While his current inconsistencies and areas for improvement temper his immediate impact, his upside as a two-way center with power-forward elements gives him excellent long-term value. With focused development, Nesbitt could emerge as a key piece for an NHL team’s middle-six forward group.

Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images

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