Justin Carbonneau (RW, R, 6’1″, 195, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, 11/25/2006)
Justin Carbonneau is a dynamic offensive forward with a strong physical foundation, boasting an elite shot, high-paced attack, and creative puck skills. His ability to create and finish plays makes him a consistent offensive threat, and his combination of speed, reach, and quick release gives him top-six NHL potential. While his offensive instincts are advanced, Carbonneau needs to improve his decision-making in critical areas of the ice, learn to initiate contact, and increase efficiency in utilizing his teammates to unlock his full potential as a professional player.
Strengths
Shooting and Scoring Touch:
Carbonneau’s shot is a standout skill, featuring a quick release and precision. He generates five grade “A” scoring chances per game and consistently creates opportunities from both forehand and backhand.
His curl-and-drag snapshot is a weapon, even when a defender is on is back leaning on him.
Puck Skills and Playmaking:
Carbonneau possesses excellent hands, allowing him to execute creative plays.
He completes 79% of his passes which is far too low for a player with his puck skill-set, but his passes lead to 1.24 grade “A” scoring opportunities per game.
His ability to thread the puck through tight lanes just as his opponent turns their head adds to his offensive value.
Skating:
Displays a strong skating base with above-average straight-line speed and agility. His edgework enables him to change direction quickly and generate power from cross-unders during turns.
On the rush, Carbonneau uses his speed to force opposing defenders to back off in the neutral zone and create space, often cutting to the middle for high-danger chances for himself and his linemates.
Physical Tools:
Carbonneau combines a sturdy 6’1″, 190-lbs frame with his ability to take and deliver hits, averaging one hard hit per game while receiving one as well.
He is willing to crash the net and compete for loose pucks, finishing with 2.7 loose puck recoveries after shots per game.
Offensive Awareness:
Always active off the puck, Carbonneau positions himself to create passing and shooting lanes, making himself a constant scoring threat.
Areas for Improvement
Decision-Making and Puck Management:
Carbonneau occasionally forces one-on-one plays instead of leveraging give-and-go opportunities, resulting in turnovers (averaging eight giveaways per game). The NHL game is built around creating odd-man situations so improving his ability to use teammates effectively will make him more dangerous offensively.
Physical Engagement and Battle Efficiency:
Despite his size, Carbonneau wins only 41% of his 50/50 puck battles.
Shot Efficiency and Accuracy:
Carbonneau attempts a high volume of shots (10 per game), but 1.94 are blocked and 2.9 miss the net. Improving his shot selection and accuracy will maximize his scoring output.
Defensive Commitment:
With limited penalty-kill usage (0:29 per game) and occasional lapses in defensive positioning, Carbonneau’s overall defensive game needs ice scanning and details. Developing consistency in backchecking and supporting his defensemen will be crucial for his transition to higher levels.
Strength and Conditioning:
While Carbonneau plays physically, he would benefit from increased strength, particularly in board battles and when attempting to separate opponents from the puck.
Key Development Goals
Improve Physicality: Increase effectiveness in puck battles and on the forecheck by leveraging his size, speed and strength more consistently.
Enhance Shot Selection: Focus on reducing blocked and missed attempts while maintaining his shooting volume. Continued development of an expanded one-timer shooting zone is a necessity.
Strengthen Defensive Game: Build trust with coaches through improved backchecking and positional awareness in the defensive zone.
Utilize Teammates Effectively: Work on making quicker, simpler plays to maintain possession and create more cohesive offensive opportunities.
Develop Explosiveness: Continue working on first-step acceleration to maximize his effectiveness in transitions and rush situations.
Projection
Justin Carbonneau projects as a potential top-six forward with the ability to excel in a scoring role. His shot and offensive instincts make him a power-play asset, while his physical tools and skating allow him to thrive in transition and along the boards. With improved decision-making and defensive reliability, Carbonneau could become a versatile NHL winger capable of impacting the game in all situations.
Draft Outlook
We currently have Carbonneau projected as a mid-to-late first-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. .
Player Comparison
Brock Boeser (Vancouver Canucks) – A right-shot winger with a powerful shot, deceptive puck skills, and the ability to impact the game offensively in a top-six role.
Final Assessment
Justin Carbonneau is an offensively gifted winger with the tools to thrive at the professional level. His scoring ability and offensive instincts are already NHL-caliber, and with improvements in physicality, decision-making, and defensive reliability, he has the potential to develop into a productive top-six forward capable of handling significant minutes in all situations. His unique combination of size, skill, and shooting makes him a highly intriguing prospect for the 2025 NHL Draft.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images