Dawson Gerwing (LW, L, 6’3″, 225, Kelowna Rockets, 07/12/2006)
Draft Year: 2025 (Second Year of Eligibility)
Case for Dawson Gerwing as an NHL Draft Pick
- Pro-Ready Frame and Physicality
At 6’3″, 225 lbs, Gerwing already possesses NHL size and plays a heavy game.
Delivers 1.93 hard hits per game and receives less than one per game (0.95) – he initiates contact and shows no issues with absorbing it.
Wins a respectable 47% of his 50/50 battles, but that number should be higher given his size.
Effective forechecker who pressures defenders and plays a direct, north-south game.
Uses his size effectively along the boards and in front of the net, creating space for himself and teammates. - Improved Offensive Production Post-Trade
After being traded to Kelowna, he has 11 points in 16 games, compared to 10 points in 27 games with Swift Current.
Has increased his assist rate – he is playing a more engaged offensive style and is using the combination of his size and strength.
Generates 1.48 grade “A” scoring chances per game, a very solid number for a depth forward with a physical identity. - Defensive Responsibility and Grit
Plays 0:40 per game on the penalty kill, showing that he has defensive details.
Averages 2.6 takeaways per game, which is a good for a player with his size—he can strip pucks and force turnovers, but we would like that number to increase year over year while playing junior hockey.
High compete level—Gerwing does not take shifts off and leads by example with his effort.
Willing to engage physically, fight when necessary, and spark his team—an asset that NHL teams look for in bottom-six forwards.
Case Against Dawson Gerwing as an NHL Draft Pick
- Skating and Mobility are currently below NHL Standards
Skating is choppy and inefficient, limiting his ability to keep pace in transition.
Still developing his explosiveness—doesn’t separate well from defenders or breakaway into open ice when the opportunity arises.
Must improve edge work and first-step acceleration to be effective at the pro level. - Puck Management and Offensive Ceiling are Concerns
4.7 giveaways per game—his puck security needs improvement, especially for a physical, middle-six winger.
Completes only 84% of his passes, which is below expectations for a player in his role.
Has only 1.73 shots on goal per game – he isn’t generating enough individual offense through rebounds or loose pucks in the low slot. - Poor Plus/Minus Since Trade to Kelowna
-8 in 16 games since joining Kelowna.
Some of this could be team-driven, but it suggests he has struggled to drive play positively despite increased point production.
Final Verdict: Draftable or Not?
Borderline Draft Pick – Likely Undrafted Free Agent Candidate
Why Draft Him?
Pro-ready frame and physicality make him intriguing as a potential bottom-six NHL forward.
Consistent work ethic, forechecking ability, and willingness to engage physically.
Recent offensive improvement in Kelowna leaves little doubt that he is still developing.
Why Not Draft Him?
Skating remains a major issue that could prevent him from playing at the NHL level.
Puck management and offensive decision-making need to be refined.
Does not project as a secondary offensive player, limiting his long-term ceiling.
Projection:
Best-Case NHL Upside: Fourth-line checking forward who provides intimidation and a physical presence.
Most Likely Path:
Finishes WHL career → AHL depth forward → Potential NHL fourth-line role if skating improves.
Draft Range: 7th round or priority undrafted free agent signing.
Conclusion:
Gerwing has NHL-caliber size and a strong physical identity, but his skating and offensive upside limit his draft stock. He could still develop into an effective bottom-six checking forward, but he will need to continue developing his skating mechanics and improve his puck management to earn an NHL opportunity. If he goes undrafted, expect NHL teams to monitor him as a potential free-agent signing if his development continues in the right direction.
Photo credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images