Dominik Pavlik (C, L, 6’1″, 197, Moose Jaw Warriors, 03/27/2007)
Dominik Pavlik is a physically mature, two-way forward who has shown flashes of NHL draft-worthy traits, particularly in international play. He competes, plays with structure, and was a standout at the 2024 Hlinka-Gretzky Cup for the Czech Republic with his consistent motor and heavy game. However, since arriving in Moose Jaw, there has been a significant drop-off in his competitiveness and physical impact, raising real concerns about his long-term translatability, confidence and mind-set to play North American styled hockey. Based on his tools, he remains a potential late-round target, but the inconsistencies are stark and must be addressed.
Why Dominik Pavlik Should Be an NHL Draft Pick
1) Size and Frame Translate to the Pro Level
At 6’1″ and 197 pounds, Pavlik is physically ready for the next level. He has the base to handle heavier matchups down low and along the walls, and has shown he can protect the puck and win body positioning when he’s engaged. His physical tools are not in question.
2) Compete Level and Detail-Oriented in International Play
At the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, Pavlik was one of Czechia’s most trusted players. Averaging 18:36 TOI, including 2:07 on the penalty kill, Pavlik played in all situations. He blocked 6 shots, drew nearly 1 penalty per game, and generated 4.8 shots per game, all while finishing top-three on his team in puck retrievals and takeaways. His attention to detail and willingness to play through contact were defining traits of his game in international competition.
3) Drives Offense Through Motor and Puck Protection
Pavlik plays with power on his edges and has shown a knack for getting to dangerous ice. He scored a highlight-reel goal at the Hlinka by protecting the puck on a wide zone entry, cutting inside at the faceoff dot, and finishing on a beautiful shot of his backhand. He wins pucks, initiates contact on the forecheck, and supports low in the defensive zone. When his game is on, he impacts every shift.
4) Intelligent Positional Play & Stick Usage
He’s an advanced positional center, reading lanes well and angling off puck carriers effectively. His game processing metrics — such as 2.4 puck losses per game, 2.5 puck recoveries, and 1.2 blocked shots — support his projection as a bottom-six shutdown or energy-line center.
Why Dominik Pavlik Should Not Be an NHL Draft Pick
1) Drastic Drop-Off in WHL Play
Pavlik has not looked like the same player since arriving in Moose Jaw. Over 13 WHL games, his game has been timid and passive. He’s averaging only 13:09 TOI, just 0.15 faceoffs per game (despite being listed as a center), and 0 hits per game — a complete departure from the effort and physicality that defined his international resume. His body language and overall engagement suggest a player struggling to adjust to pace, pressure, and confidence issues in North America.
2) Lack of Pace and Playmaking
His 74% pass completion rate in Moose Jaw is poor for any forward, but especially for a player projected as a responsible two-way center. His 0.15 pre-shot passes per game in the WHL point to a player not impacting the game with his stick in the offensive zone. His decision-making in tight areas and ability to recognize pressure have regressed significantly.
3) Ineffective in Key Areas Where He Should Excel
Despite his size, Pavlik has not brought physicality or puck protection into his WHL game. He’s being hit more than he’s hitting (1.15 hits received vs. 0 given), and he has failed to create consistent scoring chances (1 Grade A per game, 8% conversion rate). He’s looked overmatched and tentative, especially along the wall — areas where he previously thrived.
4) Positioning vs. Execution Gap
Pavlik still positions himself well, but the execution has lagged behind. He’s often in the right places without the puck but isn’t winning enough races or battles to make a meaningful impact. This makes him look disengaged or a step behind, especially at even strength.
Projection and Outlook
Player Projection: Ceiling is a fourth-line two-way center with penalty-kill upside. Floor is an AHL depth forward.
Development Needs: Rebuild offensive confidence, adjust to North American pace, and reassert physical game.
Development Priorities
Physical Engagement: Must re-establish his wall play, puck protection, and contact-driving habits
Confidence with the Puck: Needs to assert himself more offensively with quicker, more direct plays
Playmaking IQ: Improve passing efficiency and deception, especially under pressure
Skating Strength: Improve separation gear and puck protection stride
Draft Recommendation: 7th Round Consideration
Pavlik has shown he can be a high-compete, detail-driven two-way center when comfortable and confident. His international resume and physical makeup are worthy of serious consideration, but his current WHL play has exposed legitimate concerns about his translatability to the North American pro game. If a team is willing to be patient with development and believes in the version that showed up at the Hlinka, he’s a worthwhile late-round project with potential return on investment. If the WHL version persists, he will fade into the background quickly.
Photo credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images