Yan Melnikov (LW, L, 5’10”, 176, Chaika Nizhny Novgorod, 09/16/2007) Yan Melnikov is a 5’10’, 176-pound left-shot winger playing for Chaika Nizhny Novgorod in the MHL. He is a highly active offensive forward whose production and shot generation make him one of the more intriguing skill-based forwards in this group. His 37 points in 42 MHL games along with 5 points in 10 VHL games demonstrate that he can generate offense consistently and that his game has translated when exposed to stronger competition. Melnikov averages 15:02 of ice time with significant power-play usage (2:14), and he is a player his coaching staff relies on to generate scoring opportunities and goals. Melnikov generates a very high shot volume at 5.8 attempts per game with 3.0 hitting the net and creates 3.1 Grade ‘A’ scoring chances per game while converting at a strong 14% rate. He is a player who consistently attacks dangerous areas with his eyes up scanning the ice and actively drives offensive pressure rather than relying on opportunistic scoring. His ability to produce offense in the VHL as a younger player further strengthens the argument that his processing and skill set can translate against stronger competition. His puck movement numbers are solid as well, with an 85% pass completion rate and 0.88 pre-shot passes per game showing he can contribute on line rushes and is not just a shooter. Physically he plays with passion (1.02 hits per game) despite being slightly undersized relative to the NHL average, and his willingness to play inside scoring areas is real, although I don’t like that he absorbs 1.28 hits per game. Melnikov could become an NHL draft pick because his offense stands out: his shot generation, scoring chance creation, and production show legitimate offensive instincts and a willingness to attack the hard areas. Players who consistently create this many Grade ‘A’ chances have real scoring ability, and his production at both the MHL and VHL levels tells he can impact games offensively against stronger competition. However, there are also concerns that must be considered. At 5’10’ he is below the NHL average size for forwards, which means he will need to continue developing strength and maintain a high pace to compensate physically, especially if he continues to get as often as he is now while playing in Europe. His puck battle success rate of 45% is also below the level typically needed for smaller forwards projecting to the NHL, and his puck management numbers show a significant gap between takeaways (2.5) and giveaways (5.9), meaning he can force plays into low percentage areas. Defensively he is not heavily used. In my opinion, Melnikov is a legitimate NHL late round draft candidate because his offensive tools; shot generation, scoring instincts, and ability to produce offense at multiple levels; are difficult to ignore. If he continues to develop strength and power leading to improved puck protection and possession efficiency, and learns to manage the puck better under pressure, he has the potential to develop into a middle-six NHL scoring winger who can contribute on the power play. If those improvements do not materialize and his puck management issues persist, his skill set may translate more effectively as a productive offensive winger in European professional leagues.
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