Our Week #9 NZ Prep Poll had some shakeup from top to bottom. While Salisbury holds onto the top spot, KUA, Dexter and St. Sebastian’s moved up one spot in the Top 5 and Lawrence went from #2 to #5 after the 8-2 loss to Sebs. Proctor Academy joined the poll for the first time this season coming in at #12 and Gunnery and Westminster saw the biggest movements up in the poll. We have also included another 5 teams on the bubble as we head into the final two weeks of the season and playoffs are upon us.
1. Salisbury (20-3-0) Previous (#1) This Week: Wins over Taft and Loomis
NZ’s Take: The Knights extend their NEPSHIA win streak to 18 with convincing wins over Taft and Loomis Chaffee this past week. The team is averaging 6.8 goals per game in their last 10 against NEPSHIA competition and while goaltending and team defense was an issue early on they’ve been averaging just 2.3 goals against in the last 10 games. They face rival Avon on the road this week which is one of the few teams in the league that will be able to skate with them and then the final week they face Hotchkiss and Canterbury at home. They have practically locked up the top spot.
2. Kimball Union (23-4-1) Previous (#3) This Week: Wins over Andover, New Hampton and Tie to Holderness
NZ’s Take: Kimball Union is 17-1-1 in their last 19 games and heads into another tough 3 game week as they did the previous week. They beat a talented Andover team and then went 1-0-1 against Lakes Region rivals New Hampton and Holderness to keep their 10 game unbeaten streak alive.The Wildcats are showing a versatility in that they can win low scoring close games (Exeter 2-0, NMH 2-1, Nobles 1-0) or they can keep pace with offensive teams and outscore them (Proctor 6-3, Tilton 5-3, Andover 5-4). It is looking more and more like an Elite 8 rematch from 2018 but they have a tough week ahead facing Proctor and then back to back with Cushing.
3. Dexter (16-3-4) Previous (#4) This Week: Win over New Hampton
NZ’s Take: Dexter extended its unbeaten streak to 12 games after beating a gritty New Hampton squad. More impressive than going 10-0-2 in that stretch is considering who they played; wins over St. Mark’s, Thayer, Exeter, Andover (2x) and ties to Rivers and Lawrence. In that span of 12 games they are giving up an average of 1.25 goals against which is the lowest of any top teams in the league. They aren’t as heavy as the KUA’s or Salisbury’s but they can skate with anyone and their goaltending is as good as anyone in the league. A lot going in their favor heading into the playoffs; will face Berwick, Winchendon and Kent’s Hill this week.
4. St. Sebastian’s (17-4-0) Previous (#5) This Week: Wins over Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy
NZ’s Take: St. Sebastian’s is firing on all cylinders handing an undefeated Lawrence team their first loss of the season in dominate 8-2 fashion and going 9-1-0 in their last 10 games. Over that stretch they are outscoring teams 45-21 for a +2.4-scoring margin. Those teams include likely playoff bound teams in Lawrence, St. Paul’s, Proctor, Thayer and Nobles. They are a team that has had the talent but lacked the signature wins heading into February but since then they have faced 3 ranked teams and beat them all. A team fighting for home ice heading into the Elite 8 with Tabor and Governors on the schedule this week. They end the season with a rematch game against Lawrence Academy.
5. Lawrence (14-1-6) Previous (#2) This Week: Wins over Thayer and St. Paul’s, Loss to St. Sebastian’s
NZ’s Take: Overall Lawrence had a solid week defeating two solid teams in Thayer and St. Paul’s and only giving up one goal in each game, but the headlines were more focused on the 8-2 pounding they took from St. Sebastian’s. This team has been one of the most interesting all season long having not lost a game until February 8th but they also lack any wins against top flight opponents other than a tie to Dexter and a win against NMH. They have 3 games this week against BB&N, Governors and St. Mark’s and then 3 more the following week against Milton, St. Sebastian’s and Tabor. Need wins against St. Mark’s and St. Sebastian’s to improve their wins against +.500 teams. A lot of positives on this team but the St. Seb’s loss was quite a setback.
6. Gunnery (19-4-1) Previous (#8) This Week: Wins over Avon, Brunswick and Lawrenceville
NZ’s Take: Gunnery looks to have rebounded from their midseason slip and is riding a 5-game win streak since being dominated by Salisbury at home. They’ll face Canterbury, Brunswick and Pomfret where they’ll be favored in all 3 games but none will be easy to win. They are back to scoring goals averaging 5.2 per game in their previous 5 and their win over a talented Avon team showed they are going to be a tough out come playoffs. Need more consistency defensively and in net but all the pieces are there to make a deep playoff run.
7. Northfield Mount Hermon (17-5-2) Previous (#6) This Week: Wins over Williston and Worcester, Tie to Winchendon
NZ’s Take: NMH is looking like a 20+ win team this season with 17 already accumulated and 5 games remaining on the schedule. They face Exeter, Andover and Loomis in the final two weeks, but they will be heavily favored against Hoosac and Choate. Since December 30th win over Dexter they have not allowed 3 goals in any of their next 13 games including 8 of those 13 games being 1 goal against or less. This is a tough team to score against and they are one of the most disciplined and well coached teams in the league. They’ll face Exeter on Wed which will be a big game for two teams on the fringe of the Elite 8 looking to polish up their resume.
8. Westminster (11-5-3) Previous (#11) This Week: Win over Choate, Tie to Hotchkiss
NZ’s Take: Westminster wanted to walk out of Hotchkiss with a win as they were the better team but they can’t complain going 7-1-1 in their previous 9 games as they head into playoffs. They have been giving up 1.44 goals against in that span and starting to generate offense from up and down the lineup. In their past 9 they have wins over Avon (2x), Deerfield and Kent. They have 5 games remaining on the schedule, 2 of which are ranked teams in Gunnery and Deerfield; they’ll likely need to win at least 4 of those games to have a shot at Elite 8.
9. Tilton (17-5-0) Previous (#7) This Week: Loss to Holderness
NZ’s Take: Tilton has been a bit shaky as they come to the final month of the season going 2-3-0 in their last 5 games. The losses to NMH and KUA are obviously explainable and their rebound win against Exeter looked like they righted the ship but a loss at home against Holderness in their only game of the week is quite a setback. They don’t play another .500 team the rest of the way and will need some help to squeeze into the Elite 8. The one area they have really benefited is that some of their wins earlier this season are looking better and better as teams like Proctor and KUA are playing really well as of late.
10. Groton (16-5-2) Previous (#10) This Week: Wins over Rivers and St. Mark’s
NZ’s Take: Groton continues to make a late season push riding a 13-game win streak through January and into February. They have an impressive win/loss record and have beaten some quality teams in Rivers, Exeter and St. Paul’s as well as a tie to Lawrence Academy, but the majority of their victories have come against sub .500 teams. They’ll likely need to win out and get a lot of luck in order to overcome their limited strength of schedule and squeeze into the Elite 8 but in all likelihood, they’ll be a home seed in the Small School Tournament. Regardless, a very impressive run they are on.
11. Deerfield (12-7-1) Previous (#9) This Week: Win over Loomis, Loss to Avon
NZ’s Take: Deerfield continues to scratch heads as a team that has as many wins over ranked opponents as anyone in the poll but they also have 7 losses and only 12 wins on the season. Plagued by a very challenging schedule all of their losses come against +.500 teams and they have some major victories over KUA (2x), Avon, Andover, Hotchkiss, NMH and Groton. They have a tough road ahead against Taft, Williston, Exeter, Kent and Westminster. They have the opportunity to do something with that remaining schedule but it will be an uphill battle.
12. Proctor (18-7-1) Previous (NR) This Week: Wins over Exeter, Berwick and Kent’s Hill
NZ’s Take: Proctor is a tough team to handicap; like Groton they have a strong win/loss record and go into this week 6-1-0 in their previous 7, but they don’t have much in the way of signature wins. Against ranked opponents their record is 2-6-1 but they are coming off a big win against Exeter which helped prove what they are capable of. This week they’ll go on the road to Kimball Union and New Hampton which will both be tough games, but if they can win those they’ll be in really good shape heading into the playoffs.
13. Exeter (15-8-2) Previous (#10) This Week: Win over Albany, Loss to Proctor
NZ’s Take: Exeter took another tough loss this week to a Proctor squad that is 6-1-0 in their previous 7 and pretty much shut the door on an Elite 8 push here late in the year. However, they have 15 wins and of their 8 losses, 6 of them come against ranked opponents, 1 against a non-NEPSHIA team and 1 against Governors. They are 3-4-0 in their previous 7 so they are not playing their best hockey as of late but they still have a promising resume with wins over #4 St. Sebastian’s, #6 Gunnery, #14 Andover, #16 Kent and a tie against #3 Dexter.
14. Andover (14-8-1) Previous (#9) This Week: Win over Belmont Hill, Losses to Dexter and Deerfield
NZ’s Take: Andover, like rival Exeter, is not playing their best brand of hockey heading into the playoffs as they are 6-7-1 in their last 14 games. With that being said, they have had a very difficult road as 7 of their 8 losses come against ranked opponents. They are pretty much out of the Elite 8 discussion but should be a feared team as they head into the Large School because most of the teams that beat them this season will be playing in the Elite 8. They had a 1 goal loss to KUA and then rebounded with a 10-5 win over Governors this past week. They’ll face Cushing, Brooks and BB&N this upcoming week.
15. Nobles & Greenough (13-8-2) Previous (#15) This Week: Wins over Governors and Milton
NZ’s Take: Nobles picked up two more wins this week but was unable to move up in the poll because both teams are sub .500. They actually don’t get the opportunity to play another .500 team the rest of the season which will not help them in the RPI conversation; however, early in the season they got some important wins against Dexter and Deerfield which are looking better and better every week. They also have wins over bubble teams St. Paul’s and Rivers and of their 8 losses, 7 come against ranked opponents.
On the Bubble of Top 15
Rivers (15-7-2) This Week: Wins over St. George’s and Roxbury Latin
NZ’s Take: Rivers could make an argument they are getting shafted by not being in the Top 15 given their 15 wins and only 7 losses on the season. Overall their strength of schedule is hurting their RPI, but they do have quality wins over St. Sebastian’s, Groton and Proctor.
Avon Old Farms (12-7-1) This Week: Win over Deerfield, Loss to Gunnery
NZ’s Take: Avon is 3-5-0 in their last 8 games but 4 of those 5 losses came against ranked opponents and they were able to Deerfield in a rematch game from earlier in the season. They have a busy week with Choate, Salisbury and Pomfret but they are a team that should be a home seed in the Large School playoffs and have a chance to run the table.
St. Paul’s (13-8-1) This Week: Win over Cushing, Loss to Lawrence Academy
NZ’s Take: St. Paul’s is the type of team that nobody will want to play going into the playoffs. They are 1-3-0 in their last 4 games but they played Lawrence to a 2-1 game, beat Cushing and had trouble on the road against New Hampton and Sebs the previous week. With their goaltending and tough to play against style, they can surprise teams in the Large School Playoffs. Two games remaining on the schedule are Thayer and Holderness.
Kent (11-7-2) This Week: Wins over Berkshire and Trinity Pawling
NZ’s Take: Kent made our Bubble list last week despite only having 9 wins and they added to that this week with wins over Berkshire and Trinity Pawling. They have a tough strength of schedule and are battle tested heading into the playoffs where they could surprise teams as they have depth up and down the lineup. They have Hotchkiss and Canterbury on the schedule this upcoming week and if they can pull out wins there Kent could climb the RPI and make a case for home ice in the Large School.
Hotchkiss (11-7-2) This Week: Wins over Berkshire and Trinity Pawling
NZ’s Take: Hotchkiss entered the week riding a 4-game win streak and had a good tie against a talented Westminster team but ended the week with a loss to Taft at home. They face Kent and Trinity Pawling this week and should still be a Large School contender but their hopes at Elite 8 are all but over. Quality goaltending and a big, physical lineup however is a good recipe for winning hockey games in the playoffs so not a team to sleep on.