At the February 17 mark the season has just two weeks remaining and therefore the spotlight on playoffs begins to take shape. We will breakdown this weeks games and what teams to keep an eye on.
Prep hockey has 3 different playoffs; Elite 8 (best 8 teams), Large School (top 8 teams outside of Elite 8 from large schools) and Small School (top 8 teams outside Elite 8 from small schools). The Large School and Small School playoffs are determined by RPI rankings, similar to the NCAA Pairwise rankings and the Elite 8 is determined by the JSPR Ranking which is a comparative algorithm to determine the top 8 teams in the league from a pool of the Top 16 in RPI.
Anyways, lets breakdown the numbers to help give some context here. The RPI calculation is very simple; its 25% your record, 21% your opponents record and 54% your opponents opponent record. Basically, you get a lot of credit in an RPI format from playing better teams with higher strength of schedule. This doesn’t give any credit for road wins, overtime wins, etc but it does give credit for beating teams with winning records vs teams with losing records.
The .500 teams are key in this equation; you want to play teams that are both .500 or above and are playing against teams that are .500 and above. So one of the key things to look at down the stretch is how the bubble .500 teams perform because teams a game or two below .500 that end the year above .500 is a major boost to the teams who have played them and who have beaten them. Same goes the other way. So let’s start there; the teams that are in the bubble .500 (2 games or less above or below .500).
Updated 2/17/22
+2 Games
Tilton
Loomis
Berkshire
+1 Game
Brooks School
.500
N/A
-1 Game
Millbrook
Governors
Tabor Academy
-2 Games
Brewster
Tabor
If we take a deeper dive into these 6 impactful teams and who they have remaining on their schedule, those teams win percentages and games against common opponents to get a clearer picture of whether these teams will be .500 or not by the playoffs.
Loomis: The most likely scenario is that Loomis goes 2-2-0 in their final 4 games which would get them OVER .500 at the end of the season.
Brooks: Most likely scenario is that Brooks goes 2-2-0 in their final 4 games which would get them OVER .500.
Tabor: Most likely scenario is that Tabor goes 3-2-0 in their final 5 games which would place them UNDER .500
Berkshire: Most likely scenario is that Berkshire goes 2-2-0 in their final 4 games which would place them OVER .500
Governors: Most likely scenario is that Governors goes 2-2-0 in their final 4 games which would place them UNDER .500
Millbrook: Most likely scenario is that Millbrook goes 1-3-0 in their final 4 games which would place them UNDER .500
Now we take the teams that are likely to be .500 and see who it benefits and we take the teams who are likely not going to reach .500 and see who it hurts.
Projected .500 or better: Loomis, Brooks, Berkshire
Projected .500 or less: Tabor, Governors, Millbrook
Winners (teams in playoff hunt who have won head to head):
Loomis: Brunswick, Kent, Gunnery, Westminster, Cushing, Avon, Salisbury
Brooks: St. Marks x2, Hebron, Millbrook, St. Georges, Dexter, Belmont Hill
Berkshire: Gunnery, Avon x2, Loomis, Salisbury, Kent
Losers (teams in playoff hunt who have won head to head):
Tabor: Andover, Nobles, Avon, St. Sebastian’s, Exeter, Belmont Hill, St. Mark’s
Governors: Belmont Hill x2, Rivers, Holderness, St. Sebs, Brooks, Tabor
Millbrook: Gunnery x2, Pomfret, Brunswick, Kent, Salisbury
While the calculation is actually more complicated than just saying the teams that beat them head to head are “winners,” this is a pretty easy way to break it down. You technically get credit for just playing against a .500 or better team and very little credit for playing sub .500 so regardless of the outcome there are points to be moved. However, for our purposes this gives us a pretty accurate projection. The teams that really benefit are Avon (+3) who is already firmly supplanted in the Elite 8 field. For bubble teams the team to keep an eye on would be Pomfret (+1), Westminster (+1), Cushing (+1) and Hebron (+1) who would benefit from this scenario.
Now taking a dive into the JSPR for the Elite 8. There are roughly 21 teams who have a shot at being in the top 16 of RPI at seasons end. We aren’t as concerned with the top RPI teams as they are pretty much cemented but our focus would be on teams in the bottom third as the teams 10-16 will have a major impact on JSPR. If the season ended today here are the teams we are talking about.
Very Secure (4): KUA, Avon, Belmont Hill, St. Sebastian’s
Secure (5): Salisbury, Kent, Dexter, Nobles, Cushing
Bubble (12) : Holderness, Brunswick, Westminster, Gunnery,St. Marks, Pomfret, Exeter, Loomis, NMH, Andover, Rivers, St. George’s
If we take the secure teams out and just focus on the bubble teams (12) fighting for the final 7 spots. To project which teams will and will not make it will require an analysis of probable outcomes which we used winning percentage and record against common opponents to predict future outcomes. But keep in mind RPI is only 25% dependent on the team’s record and 75% based on their opponents records so we have to also consider strength of schedule and the weight of those wins. We won’t bore you with the calculations and just give you the results. We factor in projected finish in the final games, the opponents win percentages to come up with a percentage chance of the team making the Top 16.
Holderness: 81% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Brunswick: 80% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Westminster: 64% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
St. Mark’s: 66% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Gunnery: 68% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Exeter: 54% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
NMH: 49% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Pomfret: 44% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Andover: 44% chance of being in Top 16 in RPI
Loomis: 47% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
Rivers: 42% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
St. George’s: 36% chance of being Top 16 in RPI
There are three teams that look to be long shots to make the Top 16 which are Loomis, Rivers and St. George’s. Then we take the four teams which appear to be secure which are Cushing, Brunswick, Westminster and St. Mark’s. While anything can happen we’ll assume for sake of this projection to exclude those teams and focus on the five teams in the hunt for the bottom 4 spots.
Gunnery – Gunnery got a big win against Pomfret but still has Brunswick and Wesminster remaining. They’ll need to win at least one of those two to stay in the Top 16.
Exeter – Exeter plays NMH and Andover, two teams in the Top 16 bubble, and they’ll have to win at least one to stay in the Top 16 and if they win both they’ll be a lock. Losing both could put them in jeopardy depending on what other teams do.
NMH – NMH plays both Exeter and Andover to close out their season so that will be their case to make the playoffs. They have to win at least one of those games to have a chance but if they sweep they are in and if they lose out they are out.
Pomfret – Pomfret lost a big game to Gunnery which will make it tougher for them down the stretch to hold onto a Top 16 seed. They still have Avon on the schedule but they’ll need to run the table to stay in the hunt.
Andover – Andover likely has the toughest road of any of the bubble teams which gives them the most opportunity to climb but also the hardest task to achieve. They have 4 games remaining, 3 of which are .500 or better teams and 2 of them are Top 16 candidates in Exeter and NMH. The loss to Cushing last game hurts their case but if they can run the table they’ll be in the mix at the end.
At the end of the day, all these teams are trying to get the highest RPI rating as possible in order to get into the playoffs and to get home ice during the playoffs; but the “Top 16” designation is particularly important to the teams competing for the Elite 8. Those teams care a lot about which teams fall between 10-16 because that will determine if they make the Elite 8 or not and what their seeding will be. So if we take this a step further, we can see who the Elite 8 contenders are cheering for down the stretch.
Gunnery:
Winners if they make Top 16: Exeter, Dexter, Salisbury, Avon
Losers if they make Top 16: Brunswick, Pomfret
Tie: Kent
Exeter
Winners if they make Top 16: Brunswick, St. Sebastian’s, Kimball Union, Holderness
Losers if they make Top 16: Gunnery, Andover, Cushing
Tie: Dexter
NMH
Winners if they make Top 16: Belmont Hill, Avon Old Farms, Kimball Union
Losers if they make Top 16: Westminster
Tie: Cushing
Pomfret
Winners if they make Top 16: Nobles & Greenough, Holderness, Gunnery
Losers if they make Top 16: Andover
Tie: Dexter, Westminster
Andover:
Winners if they make Top 16: Pomfret, Salisbury, Westminster, Exeter, St. Sebastian’s, Kimball Union, Cushing
Losers if they make Top 16: Dexter
Tie: Nobles & Greenough
It’s hard to break this down in aggregate but its more clean when you look at specific scenarios. So the JSPR is based on RPI, Head to Head, Record against Common Opponents and Record Against Team Under Consideration (Top 16). So this look above relates to head to head record and part of the record against common opponents. So we’ll analyze two examples:
Holderness School
If the season ended today they would be somewhere between 4th – 6th in the JSPR and that would be from a 2-1 record against teams under consideration with wins over Exeter, Pomfret and a loss to KUA. However, Exeter and Pomfret are both on the bubble of Top 16 in RPI. If you took one of them that would hurt Holderness, if you took them both out you could potentially take them from a middle Elite 8 team to being out of the Elite 8. So down the stretch it’s obviously important for Holderness to win their games but it’s also very important for them how Exeter and Pomfret finish.
Salisbury School
If the season ends today Salisbury would be on the JSPR Elite 8 bubble. Now they have a major matchup against Avon on Saturday which will go a long way in determining their fate but they would benefit from Andover and Gunnery finishing strong to be in the Top 16; both of whom are currently on the bubble. Pomfret for example helps two teams that are in the hunt with Salisbury in Nobles & Greenough and Holderness; so if Pomfret does not make the Top 16 and Andover does for example, that’s a real boost to Salisbury and a big takeaway for Holderness and Nobles and would change the rankings entirely
So what games matter most down the stretch? We have weighted the importance based on .500 record, Top 16 in RPI, playoff implications and the ripple effect that game has on the other teams vying for playoff spots.
Tier 1
2/18 Kent vs. Westminster
2/18 Belmont Hill vs. Nobles & Greenough
2/19 Salisbury vs. Avon
2/25 Belmont Hill vs. Dexter
2/26 Exeter vs. Andover
Tier 2
2/18 Brooks vs. Andover
2/18 Cushing vs. KUA
2/19 Cushing vs. KUA
2/18 Gunnery vs. Brunswick
2/19 Westminster vs. Berkshire
2/19 Loomis vs. NMH
2/21 Pomfret vs. Avon
2/23 Gunnery vs. Westminster
2/23 Millbrook vs. Berkshire
2/23 NMH vs. Andover
2/23 St. Mark’s vs. St. George’s
2/26 Belmont Hill vs. Westminster
2/26 Berkshire vs. Gunnery
Tier 3
2/18 St. George’s vs. Tabor
2/18 Portsmouth Abbey vs. Exeter
2/19 St. Sebastian’s vs. Governors
2/19 Hebron vs. Tilton
2/19 Millbrook vs. Pomfret
2/20 Millbrook vs. Loomis
2/21 Nobles vs. Tabor
2/21 Portsmouth Abbey vs. Hebron
2/23 Belmont Hill vs. Tabor
2/23 Governors vs. Nobles & Greenough
2/26 Governors vs. Cushing
2/26 Loomis vs. Avon Old Farms
We will be covering a lot of games this week and updating these calculations on Sunday evening to re-calibrate where the playoff picture stands heading into the final week.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images