Over 90% of the prep season is over as we head into the final week of the season. As a result we’ll be keeping you up to date after the conclusion of Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday games and how they impact the playoff races. We take a snapshot of the current playoff landscape as we head into the final week and outline each major matchup and who it impacts.
Updated** 2/23/22
Below shows the winners of the key games that were played today (2/23/22) and while we still have a few more games to come in, particularly the Holt playoffs which NYA and Portsmouth Abbey are both leading heading into the third period.
Cushing lost to New Hampton which shouldn’t impact their home ice in the Large School as they very well may maintain their top seed but it likely takes away any hope of Elite 8 berth.
Westminster’s win over Gunnery likely secured them a Top 16 RPI as well as home ice in the small school tournament. That isn’t 100% at this time but we’d lock that in.
Gunnery’s loss puts them in the Top 16 RPI bubble but they are likely to retain home ice in the Small School tournament although a win today would have guarenteed it.
The Millbrook vs. Berkshire game keeps Berkshires hope of a playoff spot alive with a big overtime game winner and a hatrick for senior Reid Capello.
The NMH victory is significant because that moves them up higher in both the RPI and the Large School seedings jumping Andover who was ahead of them. NMH has a real chance to finish the year in the Top 16 RPI and practically guaranteed playoff seeding the large school tournament although its too early too tell if they’ll be at home or on the road. Andover’s loss likely bumps them out of Top 16 and likely bumps them out of home ice in the playoffs but shouldn’t knock them out of the Large School playoffs.
Rivers and Brooks both needed a win..what did they get? a tie. So that leaves us without much movement, Rivers is on the bubble of home ice for small school tournament but safely in the tournament and Brooks is still on the outside looking in. Where it is tricky is Rivers is also right on the cusp of the Top 16 which will have major ramifications if they climb inside the top 16.
St. Mark’s vs. St. George’s secured St. Mark’s home ice and may have locked up the top seed if Holderness makes the Elite 8. St. George’s loss doesn’t boot them from the small school but takes away any margin of error and they’ll be on the bubble heading into the final day.
Tabor defeats Belmont Hill which eliminates any team from running the table this year; however Tabor doesn’t have much of a chance to make the playoffs and Belmont Hill has already practicaly sown up home ice advantage for the playoff run so the loss isn’t deeply impactful for either club but it could knock Belmont Hill’s top seeding.
Nobles loses to Governors which was a bit of an upset but Governors has been one of the hottest teams in prep hockey in the past few weeks with wins over Andover, St. Seb’s and Nobles (the first time). This should secure Governors bid in the small school but won’t likely be enough to secure home ice unless they beat Cushing in the final game of the season. Nobles could have locked up their spot in the Elite 8 with a win today but a loss keeps them in the bubble.
Some other scores to a lesser degree of importance. Dexter beats Hoosac and Loomis beats Choate which doesn’t help either team a ton but certainly doesn’t hurt as they are both fighting for their tournament berths.
The Playoff Race
Elite 8
In: Belmont Hill, KUA, Avon, Salisbury, St. Sebastian’s
In the Hunt: Nobles & Greenough, Dexter, Cushing, Holderness, Kent
Nothing is set in stone but after Salisbury’s win over Avon it looks like these 5 teams have a secure seeding in the Eilte 8 (barring something highly unlikely occuring). Therefore we have a 5 team race for the bottom 3 spots. Now the way playoffs are calculated are through a algorithm named JSPR ranking which is a comparative system that only account for the top 16 teams in RPI at the seasons end. Therefore, changes in the top 16 will have an effect on the JSPR rankings, in some cases a significant effect. So the final week for Elite 8 playoffs is not only about how these teams perform, but a lot about the teams sitting between 13-18 in the RPI and which teams ultimately finish in the Top 16. This is one of the major criticisms of the JSPR system whereas RPI accounts for all games/win equally and not targeted to the top 16 teams only.
Large School
In (if not Elite 8): Nobles & Greenough, Dexter, Cushing, Kent
Likely In: Brunswick, Exeter
In the Hunt: Andover, NMH, Loomis Chaffee, Berkshire, Worcester
Like noted before, the Elite 8 sets the table for the Large and Small School playoffs so the bubble teams are rooting for the Large School Elite 8 contenders to win so it opens up more spots for them. It’s hard to tell how many spots will be open for the bubble teams but NMH and Andover currently are in the best position to lock up a spot and then it’s a dog fight among the others for whatever is left. If Berkshire wins out they have a real chance and if Worcester is able to win the Holt Conference that could help push them in as well. Too many variables at this point to really know how many spots will be available to the bubble teams but all 5 of those teams will be fighting for their playoff lives this week.
Small School
In (If not Elite 8): Holderness
Likely In: St. Mark’s, Rivers, Frederick Gunn, Westminster
In the Hunt: Pomfret, St. George’s, Governors, Portsmouth Abbey, Hebron, Brooks, Tilton
Small School will be a little easier to handicap in that there is only one Elite 8 bubble team that is a small school and that’s Holderness. Therefore, there will likely be 4 or 5 teams in solid position and a fight for the bottom 3 or 4 teams. What is different is the margins at the bottom are lower and it’s a complete toss up going into this week for those final spots. What makes this race even more exciting is that league playoffs in the Holt Conference and Lakes Region conference will have major impacts here. Hebron and Portsmouth Abbey are in the Holt while Tilton is in the Lakes Region and could improve their standing with a strong showing there. Pomfret has only one more game remaining which could help or hurt them, Governors has real opportunity given the strength of their upcoming schedule this week but also will have the toughest time getting wins.
The Remaining Games with Playoff Implications
2/23 Gunnery vs. Westminster – This is an important game between two bubble Top 16 teams which will have JSPR impacts in the Elite 8. Both teams are Small School Tournament locks but this game will also have major implications on seeding in that tournament. One of the most important games of the week. Kent is 1-1 vs. Gunnery but 0-1 vs. Westminster so the Lions will be cheering on Gunnery here. Avon and Salisbury have beat both teams so it won’t matter a ton for them but Dexter has a win over Frederick Gunn so they’d like to see Gunnery take the win. – Westminster Won
2/23 Millbrook vs. Berkshire – Berkshire is on the bubble of the Large School tournament which is significant as the team has gone 7-1-0 down the stretch and looks to be a major upset candidate as a road team in the first round. Millbook still has a chance to be .500 if they win out. – Berkshire Won
2/23 NMH vs. Andover – These are two bubble Top 16 teams in the JSPR so the result of this game will shift the JSPR rankings. Both of these teams are likely in the Large School Tournament but need wins to get home ice. A loss by either team probably doesn’t bump them out of the Large School but it does have the impact to knock them out of Top 16. Salisbury, Nobles, St. Seb’s and Cushing would like to see Andover win this game while Belmont Hill and Avon would like to see NMH get the win. KUA has wins over both so it doesn’t really impact them one way or the other. – NMH Won
2/23 Governors vs. Nobles & Greenough – While Nobles is somewhat secure for the Elite 8 and Governors isn’t likely to be in position to climb into the Top 16; the game is still important in that Governors is fighting for seeding in the Small School tournament and is not a lock there and Nobles doesn’t have a ton of margin for error in the Elite 8 so both teams need a win here. – Governors Wins
2/23 Rivers vs. Brooks – Both of these teams started the season shaky and didn’t look like playoff contenders but they are both playing their best hockey down the stretch and have a legit path to the playoffs. Brooks has won 7 of their last 8 games and Rivers has won 5 of their last 6. Rivers has a higher RPI coming into the game and looks fairly secure in the Small School Playoffs but Brooks is far from out and a win here would propel them into a legit contender to make the playoff. – Tied Game 0-0
2/23 St. Mark’s vs. St. George’s – This game is of interest for two main reasons; one they could end up playing each other in the first round of the Small School Tournament and both teams would significantly benefit from a win here. St. Mark’s would like to be the top seed which they are competing with some worthy opponents in Holderness, Frederick Gunn, Rivers and Westminster. St. George’s on the other hand needs a win to secure their spot in the Small School as despite only having 5 losses on the season they have a lower RPI and are very much on the bubble that could go either way. – St. Mark’s Wins
2/25 Belmont Hill vs. Dexter – This game has major consequences for the Elite 8; Belmont Hill is currently the top seed but they have two significant test against Westminster and Dexter in the final week which could bump their seeding. Not only that but Dexter is on the bubble of the Elite 8 and a win against Belmont Hill would essentially lock up their spot in the tournament. A loss against Belmont Hill doesn’t necessarily bump them, but it’ll make them reliant on other teams. From an Elite 8 perspective this is one of the most important games. Obviously the teams in the bubble with Dexter would like to see them lose which is Holderness, Kent and Cushing. Nobles won’t be deeply impacted but even though they have a win over Dexter which looks good in JSPR, they are still better off with Belmont Hill winning. The only teams that would be cheering for Dexter would be Avon, Salisbury and KUA who are looking to move up in seedings.
2/26 Belmont Hill vs. Westminster – Similar to the Belmont Hill vs. Dexter game, Belmont Hill would like to finish the season on a high note to secure home ice through the playoffs which is a major advantage. However, Westminster is also battling to improve their standing in the Small School tournament. With that being said, Belmont Hill would benefit the most by Westminster winning against Gunnery on Wednesday and then losing to Belmont Hill on Saturday. Depending on the outcome of Gunnery vs. Westminster on Wednesday there will likely be a lot of eye balls on this game as KUA, Salisbury and Avon (x2) would all benefit from Westminster being in the Top 16 and a win over Belmont Hill, who is seeded above all of them, is an added bonus. However, Kent would NOT want to see Westminster in the Top 16 and is better off if they lose this game and are knocked out of the Top 16.
2/26 Berkshire vs. Gunnery – Both of these teams plays in important games earlier in the week. Berkshire needs to continue their hot streak to seal their playoff berth and Gunnery will need a strong finish to stay in the Top 16 which has JSPR implications. Kent would like to see Berkshire win, but Dexter, Salisbury and Avon will be cheering for Gunnery.
2/26 Exeter vs. Andover – This is the most historical rivalry in prep school athletics let alone hockey and there is a lot on the line for both teams. Exeter and Andover are likely safe in the Large School tournament and don’t have a realistic chance of an Elite 8 bid, but seedings will be impacted with this game as well as teams under consideration. Right now they are both Top 16 but they are both bubble teams so a loss here could boot the other out of the Top 16. Holderness and KUA will be cheering for Exeter in this game but Salisbury, Nobles & Greenough, Dexter and Cushing would like to see Andover get the win. It actually has the highest impact on Cushing who lost to Exeter but beat Andover so they get a 2 for 1 in essence if Exeter is eliminated from the Top 16. However, unless Exeter loses both games this week, they are likely in the Top 16 even after a loss to Andover.
2/26 Governor’s vs. Cushing – This is another game where both teams have little to no margin for error. Cushing needs to win out and needs some things to happen for them to reach the Elite 8; Governor’s needs finish strong and win or tie at least one of their final games against Nobles or Cushing to secure their stop in the Small School tournament.
2/26 Loomis vs. Avon Old Farms – Loomis is a bubble team on two different fronts; if they win out they could technically get into the Top 16 teams in RPI (several things would have to go their way) and technically they could get home ice with a win over Avon Old Farms. However, they could also get bounced out of the Large School if they lose both games this week. Avon doesn’t have a ton to gain or to lose but given their passionate student section, home ice for them is a major advantage so seeding differences between 1, 2, 3 and 4 is significant.
23-27th Lakes Region & Holt Conference Playoffs -There are several teams who are in the hunt that will be playing in these playoff rounds. The biggest implication would be if Holderness played KUA in the Lakes Region Finals as that would have Elite 8 consequences but the other teams are more about Large and Small School playoffs. The teams in the hunt are KUA, Holderness and Tilton for Lakes Region and Worcester, Portsmouth Abbey and Hebron for Holt Conference.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling / Hickling Images