Neutral Zone has created an exclusive, proven star rating system which ranks prospects on a 1-5 scale in increments of 0.25. For a prospect to be given a star rating they must be seen by at least two scouts; a regional scout and a Head Scout or Scouting Director.
The star rating reflects how that prospect compares to other players in his/her birth year. The analytics below show the last three years of star rating data.
NCAA Prospects (2015-2024)
| Star Rating | % of D1 | % of D3 | % Other |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.5 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.25 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.0 | 97.18% | 0.0% | 2.82% |
| 3.75 | 84.56% | 3.61% | 11.83% |
| 3.5 | 37.44% | 41.39% | 21.17% |
| 3.25 | 2.19% | 71.65% | 26.16% |
| 3.0 | 0.07% | 81.98% | 17.95% |
| 2.75 | 0.0% | 83.14% | 16.86% |
| 2.5 | 0.0% | 48.32% | 51.68% |
| 2.25 | 0.0% | 22.13% | 77.87% |
| 2.0 | 0.0% | 6.47% | 93.53% |
The NCAA prospect data shows that 100% of all players ranked 4.25 star or higher go NCAA D1. 97.18% of 4 stars go D1, 84.56% of 3.75-star prospects go D1 and then there is a major drop off to 37.44% of 3.5-star prospects go NCAA D1.
These ratings give NCAA prospects and coaches an accurate indication of where the players stand. The star ratings will change throughout a player’s amateur career as players develop at different rates; but overall this is a useful tool to compare and analyze prospects.
CHL Draft Prospects (2016-2024)
| Star Rating | % 1st Rd | % 2nd Rd | % 3rd Rd | % 4-5th Rd | % 6-7th Rd | % 8-9th Rd | 10th Rd+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 | 99.89% | 0.11% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.5 | 99.12% | 0.81% | 0.07% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.25 | 22.71% | 49.97% | 24.82% | 1.89% | .3% | 0.19% | 0.12% |
| 4.0 | 1.31% | 21.44% | 43.41% | 31.64% | 1.1% | 0.42% | 0.68% |
| 3.75 | 0.4% | 3.21% | 8.12% | 24.34% | 29.84% | 27.38% | 6.41% |
| 3.5 | 0.0% | 0.02% | 0.71% | 3.24% | 5.38% | 9.16% | 38.74% |
| 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.61% | 3.22% | 9.24% | 12.59% |
| 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.17% | 2.41% |
| 2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.70% |
| 2.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The CHL Draft data is similar to the NCAA data in that it shows the 4.25 stars and above are almost entirely first round draft picks; 4.0-star prospects are almost entirely second round picks and 3.75 and 3.5 are mostly picks between 3-5th round. Players 3.25 star rated and below are late round picks and players 2.5 rated and below are rarely even drafted at all.
How Star Ratings are Formalized:
Weight of Star Rating
- 20% Historical Performance – how the player has performed 3 months prior and previous seasons
- 60% Current Performance – how has this player played the last 3 months
- 20% Projection – Translatable skills to be ready to play at the next level
Star Rating System
- 5 -Star – Elite Talent / High Impact NHLer at 18 years old
- 4.75 Star – Top 3 CHL Draft Pick / 17-18 year old high impact NCAA freshman / Top 10 NHL Draft Pick
- 4.5- Star – 18 Year Old NCAA Freshman / 1st Rnd CHL pick; 1-2 Round NHL Draft Pick
- 4.25 Star – 19 Year Old NCAA Freshman / 2-3 Rnd CHL Pick, Mid to Late Round NHL Pick
- 4.0- Star – Full Scholarship NCAA / 3-5 Rnd CHL Draft Pick; Late Round Consideration NHL Draft Pick
- 3.75 Star – NCAA D1 Prospect / Middle Round CHL Draft Pick / Not an NHL Prospect
- 3.5 Star – Low End NCAA D1 / High-End NCAA D3 Prospect / Late Round CHL Draft Pick / High Impact Junior A/Tier II
- 3.25 Star – Immediate contributor at NCAA DIII as freshman; Impact Player in Junior A/Tier II/III Juniors
- 3.0 Star – Above average NCAA DIII prospect; Average Junior A/Tier II prospect; Impact Player at Tier III
- 2.75 Star – Average NCAA DIII Prospect; Above Average Tier 3 Junior Player
- 2.5 Star – Below Average NCAA DIII Prospect; Average Tier 3 Junior Player
Noteable Five-Star Players
Unlike other ranking sites – Neutral Zone preserves the 5-star for elite level players who don’t come around in every birth year. These are players that we see as distinguishably better than their peers in that birth year and also believe to have upside to be a high impact player at the NHL level at the age of 18.
2024: Landon Dupont (at age 15) – Exceptional Status in WHL
2022: Macklin Celebrini (at age 16) – #1 Overall NHL Pick in 2024
2020: Connor Bedard (at age 14) – #1 Overall NHL Pick in 2023
2019: Adam Fantilli (at age 15) – #3 Overall NHL Pick in 2023
2018: Owen Power (at age 15) – #1 Overall NHL Pick in 2021
2017: Cale Makar (at age 18) – #4 Overall NHL Pick in 2017
2016: Jack Hughes (at age 14) – #1 Overall NHL Pick in 2019