Neutral Zone has created an exclusive, proven star rating system which ranks prospects on a 1-5 scale in increments of 0.25. For a prospect to be given a star rating they must be seen by at least two scouts; a regional scout and a Head Scout or Scouting Director.
The star rating reflects how that prospect compares to other players in his/her birth year. The analytics below show the last three years of star rating data.
NCAA Prospects (2015-2018)
| Star Rating | % of D1 | % of D3 | % Other |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.5 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.25 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.0 | 99.2% | 0.0% | 0.80% |
| 3.75 | 97.66% | 0.0% | 2.34% |
| 3.5 | 88.14% | 2.28% | 9.58% |
| 3.25 | 9.98% | 69.65% | 20.37% |
| 3.0 | 0.97% | 87.78% | 11.25% |
| 2.75 | 0.0% | 97.77% | 2.23% |
| 2.5 | 0.0% | 78.32% | 21.68% |
| 2.25 | 0.0% | 72.24% | 27.76% |
| 2.0 | 0.0% | 67.11% | 32.89% |
The NCAA prospect data shows that 100% of all players ranked 4.25 star or higher go NCAA D1. 99.20% of 4 stars go D1, 97.66% of 3.75-star prospects go D1 and 88.14% of 3.5-star prospects go D1. Then there is a major drop off at 3.25 stars where less than 10% go D1 and after that it’s less than 1%.
These ratings give NCAA prospects and coaches an accurate indication of where the players stand. The star ratings will change throughout a player’s amateur career as players develop at different rates; but overall this is a useful tool to compare and analyze prospects.
CHL Draft Prospects (2016-2018)
| Star Rating | % 1st Rd | % 2nd Rd | % 3rd Rd | % 4-5th Rd | % 6-7th Rd | % 8-9th Rd | 10th Rd+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.5 | 100% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.25 | 91.22% | 8.88% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.0 | 2.13% | 90.4% | 6.43% | 1.04% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.75 | 0.89% | 7.72% | 57.12% | 27.33% | 6.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3.5 | 0.0% | 1.17% | 8.03% | 71.86% | 15.48% | 3.26% | 0.20% |
| 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.79% | 51.19% | 24.42% | 7.60% |
| 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.17% | 46.69% | 31.14% |
| 2.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.41% | 71.70% |
| 2.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.21% |
| 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.18% |
| 2.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The CHL Draft data is similar to the NCAA data in that it shows the 4.25 stars and above are almost entirely first round draft picks; 4.0-star prospects are almost entirely second round picks and 3.75 and 3.5 are mostly picks between 3-5th round. Players 3.25 star rated and below are late round picks and players 2.5 rated and below are rarely even drafted at all.
How Star Ratings are Formalized:
Weight of Star Rating
- 20% Historical Performance – how the player has performed 3 months prior and previous seasons
- 60% Current Performance – how has this player played the last 3 months
- 20% Projection – Translatable skills to be ready to play at the next level
Projection Based Star Rating
- 5 -Star – First Round NHL Draft Pick / Elite NCAA/CHL prospect
- 4.5- Star – Full Scholarship D1/ 1STRnd CHL who makes immediate impact at NCAA/CHL level
- 4.0- Star – Scholarship D1/ 2-3 Rnd OHL Draft player who will play as a freshman/rookie
- 3.5 Star – Solid D1/Mid Round CHL Draft player who will contribute but may take some time
- 3.0 Star – High End D3 prospect or Low Round CHL Pick who could develop but missing areas in his game