It’s the best time of year in Prep School Hockey – Playoff Time! Neutral Zone’s scouting staff will break down each of the upcoming playoff matchups. Our scouts have seen each team remaining multiple times and will give insider info on styles of play, key matchups in the game, and some statistics to help preview the games.
Large School Playoffs
#8 Avon Old Farms (14-9-2) @ #1 Deerfield (14-8-3)
Deerfield: The Big Green had a tough schedule this year and navigated through it very well; they had wins over KUA (2x), Avon, Andover and Exeter as well as ties to Westminster and Kent. Deerfield is a bit top heavy but they play a hard game, they have great size and length and are tough to play against. They don’t beat themselves, they have a mature approach and they have quality team defense and goaltending. They are averaging just over 3 goals per game and have been able to get contributions from both the first and second line. They are playing solid but not their best as they are 4-2-2 heading into the playoffs; with that being said they are battle tested with their strength of schedule.
Key Players: Thomas Gale (Dartmouth) is their goaltender and top prospect but they have five key seniors in Sean McAvoy (Hamilton), Michael Holland, Sasha Shogren, Tomas Zourikian and Noah de la Durantaye who will be key for Deerfield to win this one.
Avon Old Farms: Avon has been inconsistent throughout the season but they are as good a skating team as there is in the league. They aren’t entering the playoffs in the best form as they have gone 5-7-1 in their last 13 games but they are battle tested playing 5 Elite 8 teams in that stretch including 2 more playoff teams. Avon has struggled to score goals in that stretch; a team with some offensive weapons but averaging only 2.3 goals per game in their last 13 which includes a 7 goal game. They have proven they can beat good teams by taking down Kent 2x, Taft 2x and Deerfield, but they need to find ways to generate more offense to make a serious playoff push.
Key Players: Their best forwards this season have been Stefan Miklakos (Army) and ’03 Tyler Boucher (BU) and they have gotten great two-way defense from Moe Acee (St. Lawrence) and ‘03 Drew Tsakounis (Penn State). Alex Aslanidis (Providence) has real talent between the pipes but has been hot and cold; however, he has the ability to steal games.
Analysis: These two teams are very familiar with each other playing twice and splitting the series 1-1. Deerfield took the first game 4-1 at home in early December but Avon returned the favor exactly two months later in their barn getting the 2-1 win. The rematch will be back at Deerfield so the Big Green could have a slight advantage but neither team is going into the game playing their best hockey. Avon has a few difference makers on their roster who will be tough to contain and both goalies have the ability to take over the game. Deerfield is the safer, older team who can grind teams down and play a disciplined 200 ft game and Avon is younger, skilled and fast and will look to stretch them out and make plays.
Key Matchup: Avon’s team speed vs. Deerfield’s age/experience. Deerfield has only 2 players who are ’02s and the rest are 1999-2001’s including 3 born in 1999. Avon on the other hand has 7 players born in 2003, 4 born in 2002 and 0 born in 1999. As a result Deerfield is older, bigger and stronger on the puck and Avon is quicker, faster and plays with more tempo. If Avon can clean up their own end and force their speed on Deerfield it will be tough stop; if Deerfield can grind them down, take away their time and space and make it a low scoring grudge match they’ll have a real advantage. Goaltending will also be a major factor.
Deerfield wins if…..they score 3 or more goals. They have lost 9 games on the season, 7 of which came from scoring under 3 goals and the games where they scored 3 or more were Elite 8 teams; a 4-3 loss to Westminster and a 7-5 loss to Salisbury.
Avon Old Farms wins if….they can find ways to generate offense. In their last 8 games they have scored just 17 goals and have gone 3-4-1. If they can get their top lines moving offensively, play to their strengths and generate scoring off the power play and in transition they have a real chance at the upset.
#7 Cushing Academy (16-10-4) @ #2 Phillips Exeter (18-10-2)
Phillips Exeter: Exeter started the season 6-0-1 against NEPSHIA competition and then had a 1-3-1 skid in December and rebounded well going 7-1-0 over the next 8 games. They then went 2-4-0 over the next 6 games and then 4-2-0 to finish the season. So it’s been an up and down season for the Lions, but this is a team that will be a tough out in the playoffs based on style of play, their experience/age, their depth and balance. While they have 9 NEPSHIA losses on the year, they grabbed the #2 seed because 3 of those were against Elite 8 teams and 5 were against playoff teams leaving just one loss to Governors as a non-playoff team loss. They also have some crucial victories over Gunnery, Andover (2x), Cushing, Holderness and Rivers. Exeter is a tough team to play against because they can roll 3 lines, they have good size and ability on the backend and a quick, gamer netminder Ryan Welch.
Key Players: This is one of the more balanced teams in the league from top to bottom but their leading playmakers are seniors Paddy Bogart, Michael Pitts and Garrett Foster and their scorers are Danny Colon and Andrew Seaman. Defensively they have great depth led by mobile and skilled Reese Popkin and complimented by bigger defenders in PJ Garrett, Paddy Mangan and Nicholas Foderaro. Netminder Ryan Welch will be key in this game because Exeter has a great track record when holding teams to 2 goals are less (17-2-1).
Cushing Academy: Cushing has had a tough schedule as 4 of their 10 losses came against Elite 8 opponents. The Penguins are a strong, physical team and the don’t shy away from the tough areas making them a difficult matchup. Their blue line is as good as any in prep hockey and while they don’t have a ton of scoring up front, they have some depth and can run 3 lines. They, like Exeter, have been hot and cold this season. They had a 4-0-1 stretch in December where they beat Holderness (#7 Small School) and NMH (#6 Elite 8) and tied Lawrence (#3 Elite 8) but they are 6-4-2 in their last 12 games. They have proven they can score averaging 3.5 goals per game but they’ll need to clean up their own end to win in the playoffs.
Key Players: Cushings defensive core is their strength; Patrick Keegan (Wisconsin) and Brendan O’Donnell are big, heavy, physical defenders; Lukas Gustafsson and Bryce Montgomery (Providence) are mobile, 2-way defenders with skill and Brad Zona is a jack of all traits who is really coming into his own this season. Not to mention 2004 and one of the best kept secrets in prep hockey Jackson Dorrington. Up front they will rely heavily on Nick Cafarelli and Jake Hewitt. Joe Sharib (Union) will need to be at his best to pull off the upset.
Analysis: These two teams played already this season at Cushing but it was Exeter that got the 3-1 win despite being outshot 34 to 21. It is a good matchup because both teams have good blue lines who are big, mobile and tough to penetrate. Offensively, neither team has a “star” player and they score by committee. Exeter is deeper up front and plays a more disciplined game but Cushing is stronger, more physical and faster. Should be a great rematch game that could come down to goaltending and special teams.
Key Matchup: Cushing offense vs. Exeter’s defense; Exeter is giving up, on average, only 2.13 goals against but Cushing comes into the game averaging 3.5 goals per game so that will be the matchup. If Exeter can hold them to a low score that plays into Exeter’s grind-it-out mentality and if Cushing is able to get a few goals and make Exeter chase then they could certainly pull off the upset.
Exeter wins if….they play sound team defense and hold Cushing to only a few goals. Exeter has more depth up front and needs to force the bigger, stronger Cushing defense to skate and stretch them out with speed and passing.
Cushing wins if….Sharib has a big night and the offense can capitalize on their chances. Cushing is one of the tougher teams to play against in all of prep so an early lead would be a major advantage for Cushing.
#6 St. Paul’s (16-9-1) @ #3 Noble & Greenough (17-8-2)
Noble & Greenough: Nobles started the season going 5-0-0 with wins over an Elite 8 team, the #1 Seed in the Large School and #8 Seed in Small School, but when they got to the Flood Marr the wheels came off and they lost 3 straight. From there they went on an even 5-5-1 record through the month of January. However, they are 6-0-0 in February and are averaging over 5 goals per game of offense in that time. The good news for Nobles is of their 9 losses; 6 came against Elite 8 competition so their biggest rivals are in another tournament. However, Nobles record against teams in the playoffs is 5-7-1 so they’ve played a lot of quality teams but have a losing record against them. Nobles isn’t very deep but they have two great lines of forwards and defense and a talented goalie who will always give them a chance to win.
Key Players: Their top players this year have been goaltender Marc Smith and forward Jack Cronin who has 23 goals on the season. However, any given night it can be anyone on their top two forward and defensive pairings that makes the key plays. Casey Severo (Merrimack) and Ryan Stevens (Yale) are dangerous up front and they have a nice supporting cast in David Jacobs, Robert Lapsley and Will Zink (Middlebury). All experienced forwards who know what it takes to win. On the backend John Murray has been their rock; he runs the powerplay, logs a ton of minutes and is one of their best playmakers. He is complimented by 2 experienced defenders in Peirce Kenney and Colby Bailey who are both versatile and give their team some size as well as young up and coming ’03 defender Aidan Lyons has stepped right into a top 4 role and shown an excellent two-way game.
St. Paul’s School: St. Paul’s should be proud to be in this spot this season; a team without a single D1 commit and only one player averaging a point per game on the roster (26 points) and only 6 players in double digit points. They play a very disciplined, defense-first style and have gotten great goaltending from Andy Beran who is sporting a .945 SV% and a favorite for the Goalie of the Year award. 8 of the teams 9 losses have come against teams in the playoffs and half of those are Elite 8 opponents. They had a nice 9-2-0 mid-season run in January but have been 4-4-0 since then. Their style of play and balance allows them to stay in games and they don’t beat themselves.
Key Players: Their best player is certainly goaltender Andy Beran but they have gotten offensive contributions from their top 5 forwards Eric Sinson, Julien Menes, Joe Schubert, Owen Stadheim and John Saklad. Defensively they have Teddy McElaney and Bryson Russell making plays at both ends. This team however is prime example of they are more than the sum of their parts as nobody clearly stands out on this squad other than Beran.
Analysis: St. Paul’s and Nobles played in mid-January at Hobey Baker Arena and Nobles got the 3-1 win and outshot the Paulies by a 2:1 margin 46 to 23. Nobles comes into the game playing their best hockey of the year and scoring a lot of goals whereas St. Paul’s is .500 in their last 8 games and have scored only 20 goals in that stretch. St. Paul’s doesn’t have as tough a strength of schedule as Nobles so even though their records are similar it’s not quite the same. Will be interesting how both teams utilize their bench as Nobles relies heavy on their top 6
The Key Matchup: Nobles speed vs. St. Paul’s defense; It’s a tough matchup for St. Paul’s because they aren’t an overly fast team and Nobles has a lot of skaters and they push the pace, they move pucks up ice quickly and they are dangerous in transition. St. Paul’s likes to slow the game down, keep opponents to the outside and win puck battles along the walls. These are two quality goalies who have talent and experience to keep their team in the game.
Nobles will win if….they score 3 or more goals. St. Paul’s is not meant to exchange blows with teams; they want to play a style of puck support and layered defense so they are tough to score against. If Nobles can stretch them out and score 3 goals or more they have a great chance to win.
St. Paul’s will win if….they can hold Nobles to 2 goals or less. The real strength of Nobles is their offensive ability and if they can neutralize that then they have team that can grind out low scoring close games.
#5 Phillips Andover (16-11-1) vs. #4 Kent School (@Loomis)
Kent School: Kent started the season with a moderate 8-7-2 record but all 7 losses were to playoff teams including 4 Elite 8 teams. Since then they have put together quite a run going 6-0-1 in their last 7 to secure home in the playoffs. Kent is a dangerous team because they can win a lot of different ways; they have 3 solid lines including a true top line in Laferriere-Posma-Dowiak who can match up against anyone. They have great size, they move well, they can play physical and have a nice combination on the blue line of size and mobility. In their 7 game unbeaten streak they have scored 4 or more goals in every game and they are giving up less (2.14 GAA) which is what plagued them early in the season.
Key Players: The teams offense goes through their top line of Alex Laferriere (Army), Michael Posma (Air Force) and Dane Dowiak (Penn State). They bring great speed and skill to the lineup and they are complimented by the Aidan Cobb and Colin Cobb (Wesleyan), Alex Giummo (Wesleyan) and Jason Kleinhans. On the back end their top player is Ian Pierce but Josh Stich and Matthew Perryman will be relied up as well. They have been inconsistent between the pipes this season but Alex Contey is likely to get the start.
Phillips Andover: Andover is a team who had a hot start to the season going 8-1-0 through their first 9 games and lost game #10 in the Flood Marr finals against Salisbury in a 4-3 game. They have gone 8-9-1 since then and while a lot of that can be chalked up to tough competition as they played against 13 playoff teams including 4 Elite 8 teams and 8 home ice teams in the first round. Andover has a potent offense averaging just shy of 4 goals per game and they have an experienced top line who have amassed 59 goals on the season; more than half their teams total. Their third line is good enough to play but won’t generate much offense and they have two solid defensive lines. The team has good size, they play hard, they are experienced and older team that can handle the heavy lifting. The problem for Andover is to keep pucks out their net as they are giving up 3.25 goals against per game and closer to 4 in their last 10 games.
Key Players: Their top four forwards are Mac Carso (24 goals), Thomas Manty (17 goals), Jonathan Assayag (18 goals) and Christian Powers (1.32 PPG). They also have William Hughes, a high end ’04 prospect who sees significant ice time and can score. On the backend they are led by sophomore Charlie Spence, Mark Meinecke and Victor Malzahn. Netminder Charlie Archer had a great start to the season but has been hot and cold down the stretch yet still maintaining a .915 SV%.
Analysis: Kent is a deeper team at each position and their top line is just as good, if not better, than Andovers top unit. Both teams have size, both teams have been inconsistent defensively and both teams can score goals so it should be a high scoring affair. The game is being played at a neutral site so that takes away some of Kents advantage, but Kent comes into the game riding a 7 game unbeaten streak whereas Andover is coming off a 4-6-0 record in their last 10 games including back to back losses against NMH and Exeter.
Key Matchup: Andover’s top line vs. Kent’s top line. These are both teams who rely on a handful of forwards to produce and they will need their best games of the season to win. You could also point at the defense and goalies to say the team who plays more reliable and defensive will be the main difference but given the way these teams play we could see an up and down, highly offensive game.
Kent wins if….their top line scores more than Andover’s top line. Kent has more depth up and down the lineup and if they can outscore their top unit then the rest of the team should be able to grind down Andover over 3 periods.
Andover wins if…. they can hold Kent to 3 goals or less. Andover has only lost 2 games this season when giving up 3 or less goals and those were to St. Paul’s and Exeter. If they can keep Kent to 3 goals they have a good chance of scoring at least 3 in this game.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images