We are in the final week of the NEPSHIA season where each team has just a few games left before playoffs. There are tight races throughout the playoff landscape and some big games this week that will determine not only home and away seeds but which teams make the Elite 8 and how that impacts everything else.
The playoff picture always starts with the Elite 8 so we’ll begin our analysis there.
The Elite 8 is determined by the JSPR Ranking system which only takes into account the Top 16 teams in RPI ranking. One team moving in or out of the Elite 8 can have a major impact on the JSPR system. So the first step is to look at the vulnerable teams at the bottom of the Top 16 and who is on their heels and if the Top 16 changes; how will that impact the teams fighting for Elite 8 seeding.
#14 Holderness, #15 Salisbury and #16 Frederick Gunn
Holderness is in a unique situation in that they have a Lakes Region playoff on the horizon and those games will either hurt their stock or help their stock. Their is a chance for them to sneak into the Elite 8 and also a chance for them to slide out of the Top 16 (although unlikely).
#15 Salisbury has just one game remaining against Hotchkiss and is fairly secure in their Top 16 placement.
#16 Frederick Gunn is the team to look out for as they face a hot Westminster team who has won 8 of their last 9 games. They finish their season on the road against Berkshire in Coach Driscolls final home game which will have an inspired team playing infront of him.
Now we take a look at the Elite 8 contenders:
Avon Old Farms, Cushing, Nobles & Greenough and Milton are safe in the Elite 8. They still have games to play but that will be more about seeding and not whether they’ll get in or not.
Brunswick is almost a lock as well but the one weakness they have is Frederick Gunn because those are two of their best wins on the season against them. If Loomis can get into the Elite 8 that would be another negative for Brunswick as they have a loss to them in the first game of the season. These aren’t likely scenarios but possible.
The next grouping is tough to gauge at this point because of two reasons. First, it will depend on how they perform this week and second it will depend on who ends up in the Top 16 RPI at seasons end.
Belmont Hill, Taft, St. Marks, Holderness, Westminster, Tabor and KUA are the final seven teams who are vying for the final three spots.
Wednesday Games with Major Playoff Implications:
Westminster vs Frederick Gunn
The biggest game left on the season is actually Wednesday when Westminster goes to Frederick Gunn. A win for Frederick Gunn secures their Top 16 and therefore is good news for Brunswick, Taft and Tabor. A win for Westminster could hurt those same teams and could propel Westminster up the ladder to a legit chance for Elite 8 with a showdown against Belmont Hill that would determine their Elite 8 fate.
Holderness vs. Dexter
This is a pivotol game for both teams as a win could put them in serious contention for Elite 8 and a loss ends any hope they have for that outcome.
Tabor vs. Belmont Hill
A win for Tabor would help their chances climb both JSPR and RPI and a loss to Belmont Hill will do the opposite. In fact, it is possible that back-to-back loses down the stretch could push Tabor out of the Top 16. Belmont Hill can’t afford a loss here because their week doesn’t get any easier with games against Dexter and Westminster remaining.
St. George’s vs. St. Mark’s
St. Mark’s needs to run the table to have a chance into the Elite 8 and St. George’s likely needs a win to secure a berth into the Small School tournament.
Andover vs. NMH
NMH, who is 9-2-1 in their final 12 games of the season faces a stingy Andover team who has had several upsets this season. A loss for NMH would be good for Frederick Gunn and all their supporters (Bruwnsick, Taft, Tabor) and a win (with a few other scenarios) could push them into the Top 16.
Friday Games with Major Playoff Implications:
Lakes Region Semi-Finals (matchups not yet determined but will include Holderness and KUA).
Belmont Hill vs. Dexter
How these teams do on Wednesday will determine how much this game matters but these are both Top 16 teams regardless. Dexter beating Holderness and Belmont Hill could put them into the mix and Belmont Hill win over Tabor and Dexter likely secures their Elite 8 regardless of Westminster result and could even propel them to home ice in the first round.
Deerfield vs. Westminster
Westminster needs a win here to keep their Elite 8 hopes alive and Deerfield is on the outside looking in for a Large School playoff berth but a win here would certainly help their resume.
Saturday Games with Major Playoff Implications:
Lakes Region Finals (could include KUA and Holderness)
Avon Old Farms vs. Loomis Chaffee
Avon is a lock for home ice and arguably the best team in the league but Loomis Chaffee is right on the cusp at this point of being a Top 16 team and that would change the JSPR landscape if they got in with a win against Avon. Brunswick, for example, will be cherring for Avon here.
Belmont Hill vs. Westminster
It all depends on how Wednesday and Friday work out for these teams to know the true importance of this game but there are scenarios where both these teams get into the Elite 8 and scenarios where neither of them get in and everything in between. The results of this game will be followed by every Elite 8 contender but it’s too early in the week to know who they’ll be cheering for.
Exeter vs. Andover
The rivalry of all rivalries between these two historic institutions could have implications for the Large School playoffs to make it in as a bottom seeed.
Milton vs. Nobles & Greenough
This game is likely not as important as it may appear because both these teams are securely into the Elite 8 but it will have seeding implications as Milton could work themselves into home ice or Nobles could potentially work themselves out of home ice.
The Run Down:
As we said in the begining the Elite 8 seedings are where it starts. Large School teams would love to see small schools like KUA, Holderness, Frederick Gunn and St. Mark’s make the Elite 8 which opens up spots for teams on the edge: St. Geroges, Governors, Proctor, New Hampton and Rivers.
Large Schools on the other hand are hoping for Taft, Tabor, Dexter, Westminster and Belmont Hill to make the Elite 8 as that will open up spots for teams on the edge including: Loomis, Kent, Exeter and Thayer.
There are three teams who are playing multiple consequential games this week which will make major playoff implications: Dexter, Belmont Hill and Westminster. There is also Frederick Gunn, NMH and Loomis who are battling for the final spot in the Top 16. As of today, there are a lot of possibilites in the final week but the picture will get clearer and clearer as the week goes on and teams rise and fall.