We are half way through February and teams are finishing the final weeks of their season before playoffs. It is time to start taking a look at playoff scenarios, key matchups down the stretch, where are the bubble teams for playoff consideration, etc. We’ll unpack it all here with data directly from NEPSHIA (as of 2/13/23).
NEPSHIA is unique in that it runs three playoff tournaments; the Elite 8; Large School Tournament and Small School Tournament. The Elite 8 is the premier tournament encompassing the top 8 teams in the prep school hockey, regardless of size of school, and #1 seed plays #8; #2 seed plays #7 and so on. However, the other two tournaments are based on the size of school (boys enrollment) and are the next best ranked teams.
To throw another fork in this; the Elite 8 playoffs are calculated by a ranking system called JSPR whereas the Small School and Large School are based on RPI; a common method used in many NCAA athletics. RPI is a calculation of a teams win percentage, their opponents win percentage and their opponents opponents win percentage.
Anyways, now that most teams have played at least 18 games we’ll transition from opinion polls each week to true playoff picture analysis using the data from NEPSHIA.
We’ll start with the Elite 8. Without going into all the specifics of the JSPR we’ll just say that it takes the top 16 teams in RPI and evaluates how they’ve done against eachother and common opponents.
Here are the top 16 teams in RPI as of 2/13/23.
- Nobles & Greenough
- Avon Old Farms
- Cushing Academy
- Belmont Hill
- Milton Academy
- Kimball Union Academy
- Brunswick School
- Taft School
- St. Marks School
- St Sebastian’s School
- Dexter School
- Loomis Chaffee
- Westminster School
- Salisbury School
- Holderness School
- Frederick Gunn School
However, as we mentioned before the Elite 8 is calculated by JSPR and not the RPI so the top 8 above are not the Elite 8. The Elite 8; if the season ended on 2/13/23 would have been following 8 teams:
Elite 8
- Nobles & Greenough
- Avon Old Farms
- Cushing Academy
- Belmont Hill
- Milton Academy
- Kimball Union
- Loomis Chaffee
- Brunswick
Wait what? Why does Loomis go from #12 in RPI to #7 in JSPR? Well there is a long answer that gets into the four components of the JSPR Rankings; head to head, RPI comparision and record against common opponents as well as record against teams in the Top 16. But the simplified answer is that Loomis has a stronger record than the teams above them both head to head and against common opponents. For example; Loomis has wins over Brunswick, Taft, Westminster and Frederick Gunn as well as ties to Avon Old Farms and Salisbury. Pretty impressive actually so as a result they jump above Brunswick, Taft, St. Marks, Dexter and St. Sebastians.
St. Sebastians and Dexter, who are #10 and #11 in RPI go down to #14 and #15 in JSPR for the opposite reason; they’ve had less success against the top ranked teams.
Thefore; if the season had ended Sunday evening than those are your Elite 8 which would mean these are your Large School and Small School playoff seedings.
Large School
- Taft School
- St. Sebastian’s
- Dexter School
- Westminster
- Salisbury
- Tabor
- Kent School
- Northfield Mount Hermon
Small School
- St. Mark’s
- Holderness
- Frederick Gunn
- Lawrence Academy
- Governors Academy
- Brooks School
- Proctor Academy
- Tilton School
With that being said, this is a snapshot of the past and obviously the season didn’t end on Sunday evening and we have 4-6 games for most teams left to be played so we’ll do some forward looking here to how this could all shake out.
Lets start with a deeper dive into each playoff bracket and what each team has ahead of them, how close are the bubble teams and .500 teams and those implications.
Elite 8 Breakdown:
It would be too early to eliminate any of the Top 16 teams under consideration but looking at this cohort of teams the Top 3 (Nobles, Avon and Cushing) look fairly secure given their records and remaining schedule.
Belmont Hill at #4 is where it begins to open up. They have six games remaining and four of them are against the Top 16 teams which means Belmont Hill has an opportunity to grab a top seed or fall right out of the Elite 8.
Milton at #5 is in good shape in that they have just four games left but two are against Top 4 teams in Belmont Hill and Nobles & Greenough. They have a good chance of making the Elite 8 at this point but their seeding is completely up in the air.
The next group of teams are all close from KUA at #6 to Holdneress at #13. In the JSPR calculation it is not only how you do, but how your opponents do against top ranked teams. In looking at the remaining schedules of these teams we see KUA has two games against Cushing (#3 ranked) which could help propel them into a home ice situation for the Elite 8 or bounce them out. Loomis has five games remaining including two against Top 16 teams in Westminster and Avon Old Farms. Brunswick has just two games remaining and one against Frederick Gunn and another against a sub .500 team so they’ll need some other teams to falter and to win out (in all likelihood). Taft could be in a tough spot as well given they don’t play a .500 team again until playoffs. St. Mark’s has six games remaining but only one against a .500 team or better so it’ll be difficult for them to leap frog anyone. Westminster might actually be in the best shape of any of the bubble teams to make a run if they have a strong end to the season as they have five games remaining including three against Top 16 opponents (Loomis, Frederick Gunn and Belmont Hill). Salisbury has just three games remaining but their rivalry game against Avon Old Farms on Saturday could have major playoff implications so they are not out of it at this point. Holderness is in similar shape, they are certainly on the outside looking in but they’ll face Dexter in their last regular season game and then have Lakes Region playoffs where a win against KUA again could potentially send them back into the Elite 8.
Ok so is that in for the Elite 8 ? Not so fast…
The JSPR calculation is based on the Top 16 teams in RPI; this is a fluid rankings and changes based on every game that is played. For example, Frederick Gunn and Holderness sit at the bottom of the RPI Top 16. Now if Holderness and Frederick Gunn lose down the stretch and get bumped out of the Top 16 that will have an impact on every team in the Elite 8 field. Cushing for example would lose a valuable win against Holderness and that would negatively impact them but KUA would benefit from shedding a loss to a Top 16. The team to really watch is Frederick Gunn at #16 because Brunswick and Loomis who are just holding on for Elite 8 seedings both have wins against Frederick Gunn (as does Salisbury) and if they are bounced from Top 16 that hurts their JSPR resume.
So who are on the bubble of making the Top 16?
The major threat to Frederick Gunn and Holderness would be Tabor then a slight gap and a group of Lawrence, Governors, Kent and NMH in behind them.
Tabor has five games remaining including #10 St. Sebastain’s, a plus .500 St. George’s, Thayer, #4 Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy. If they win 4 of those 5 games then they’ll likely be in the Top 16; if they run the table then look out as that could potentially climb the Seawolves even higher. Now what would be the impact of Tabor being in the Top 16? Milton would have the most to lose from Tabor making the Top 16 as the Mustangs have two losses to Tabor which could hurt them in a meaninful way. Tabor has ties against Belmont Hill, St. Sebastian’s and Nobles and they have lost to St. Mark’s and Avon who would be enriched with their entry into the Top 16.
Large School and Small School Breakdown:
Who ultimately gets into the Elite 8 has an impact on the Large and Small School fields. RIght now in the Large School playoff with NMH and Kent as the two bottom seeds they’ll be pushing for Taft, Brunswick and Loomis to make the Elite 8 because if none of them do and Brunswick and Loomis get replaced by two small schools like St. Mark’s and Holderness for example, then that bumps them out of the Large School Tournament.
So who are the teams on the outside looking in for Large and Small School Tournaments?
Large School: Deerfield, Thayer, Andover
Small School: St. George’s, New Hampton and Rivers
There are others but these are the top three as of Sunday evening. Deerfield could be in the best or worst position given their remaining schedule; they could climb up the RPI with a strong finish and secure a spot in the Large School but it won’t be easy facing potentially 3 playoff bound teams in their last 5 games with the other two being bubble teams. Thayer has a tough hill to climb facing 4 playoff bound teams in their final 5 games but a strong finish would absolutely put them into the Large School playoffs. Andover has six games left and they’ll face rival Exeter, #3 Cushing and potential Large and Small School playoff bound teams in Brooks and NMH. Enough chance there in the remaining schedule to make a run.
In the Small School St. George’s is very close to a playoff birth and they have five games remaining but only two of them against teams .500 or better. New Hampton has four games left in the regular season before Lakes Region playoffs and they’ll face Cushing and a surging Proctor so they’ll have a chance to get in as well. Rivers has a tougher task with just 3 games reamining and only one of them is a .500 or better team in Brooks; they’ll need to win that game and hope for a few things to go their way.
Lastly, the way RPI is calculated there is a premium placed on wins over teams with .500 or better records. Therefore, before we complete the analysis you have to track who are the teams hovering around .500 because a win or a loss for them could send a shock wave up the system to all the teams they’ve played. If you have a win over a bubble .500 team during the season you will find yourself cheering for them to end the year strong.
The Teams within 2 games of .500 record (as of 2/13/23)
Tilton: 12-10-0
Portsmouth Abbey: 10-8-3
Pingree: 11-10-4
Lawrence Academy: 9-9-2
Berwick 10-10-2
Governors: 7-9-2
Rivers: 8-10-3
Williston-Northampton: 10-12-2
Exeter: 10-12-2
We will bring you updated playoff scenarios and breakdowns every Monday from now until the end of the season with updated RPI and JSPR calculations and scenarios for the big upcoming games with major playoff implications.
Games this week with major playoff implications:
2/15 Governors vs. Lawrence Academy
2/15 Rivers @ St. Mark’s
2/15 St. Sebastian’s @ Tabor
2/15 Loomis Chaffee @ Westminster
2/15 Proctor @ KUA
2/15 Belmont Hill @ Milton
2/17 Belmont Hill @ Nobles & Greenough
2/17 KUA @ Cushing
2/17 Frederick Gunn @ Brunswick
2/17 Tabor @ St. George’s
2/18 NMH @ Loomis
2/18 Salisbury @ Avon Old Farms
2/18 Cushing @ KUA