As the calender hits mid-February and most teams have 20 games under their belt – the playoff picture now comes into focus with two more weeks remaining in the season. Is it slightly too early? Sure. A lot is going to happen over the next 4-6 games for these teams but it’s time to at least give an update as to where things are at heading into final stretch.
Not every game has been inputted as of this afternoon so we’ll avoid getting too technical in the math and stick to more generalized language but those results aren’t overly impactful in the overall picture. For those new to New England Prep – they utilize a system called JSPR to select the Elite 8 playoff spots and then use a different metric, the commonly used RPI, for Large and Small School playoffs. New England Prep is unique in that it has 24 teams competitng in various playoff formats but the Elite 8 is true to it’s name as the pinnacle of the prep hockey landscape.
While we have long argued against the merit of the JSPR, as it has fundamental flaws in its design and it incentivizes playing aginst teams in weaker conferences, it is still the law of the land so we’ll base our playoff picture on the current system.
Top 10 in JSPR:
- Dexter
- Deerfield
- St. Mark’s
- Noble & Greenough
- Brunswick
- Belmont Hill
- Salisbury
- Cushing
- Holderness
- Rivers
Top 15 in RPI:
- Dexter
- Deerfield
- St. Marks
- Belmont HIll
- Brunswick
- Rivers School
- Salisbury
- Noble & Greenough
- Kimball Union
- Holderness
- Cushing
- Berkshire
- Avon Old Farms
- Andover
- Governors
So that is where things stand as of today. We have a busy week of games mostly Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. What games are the most impactful and why. We’ll break it down here:
In both the JSPR and RPI rating system, record against teams .500 or better is significant so even if these teams are not going to make the playoffs, they can have a statistically signifcant impact on the rankings.
2/19
Pomfret @ Frederick Gunn
- Frederick Gunn sits one game below .500 and has played 5 games against teams in contention. If they can finish the season above .500 that would help those teams in a meaningful way.
#10 Holderness @ Winchendon
- Winchendon sits one game below .500 and has played 7 games against teams in contention. A win over Holderness would probably take down Holderness Elite 8 hopes and a win for Winchendon could raise up several teams.
Trinity Pawling @ #12 Berkshire School
- Trinity Pawling is in the hunt for the Large School playoffs and Berkshire is a home ice large school team with an outside chance of getting into the Elite 8. This game impacts both teams and Trinity Pawling is only two games above .500.
#6 Rivers School @ #3 St. Mark’s School
- This is the marquee game of Wednesday from a perspective of two of the best teams in Massachusetts going head to head. St. Mark’s currently is a home ice Elite 8 team but even with that – a bad performance down the stretch and they could get bounced out of the Elite 8. Rivers is on the doorstep of the Elite 8 and a win here would do a lot to put them into that conversation.
Thayer @ Portsmouth Abbey
- Not many people in the begining of the season wouldd have circled this as an important game but here we are. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, both team are within 1 or 2 games of .500 and the results here will have major ramifications for each club (and therefore for the teams who have played them).
#2 Deerfield @ Taft
- Deerfield has climbed to the top of the Elite 8 riding an eight-game win streak with wins over Kimball Union, Westminster, Andover and Avon Old Farms – an impressive run. Taft is a team competing to get into the Large School tournament and is more than capable of pulling off the upset despite Deerfields impressive recent run.
#14 Andover @ #11 Cushing
- Cushing holds the last slot in the Elite 8 heading into this game going 6-1-1 in the last 8 games including a win over #3 St. Mark’s. They will have their hands full against an Andover team that is playing determined hockey after a 3-game skid they’ve rebounded their last two games with wins over playoff bound teams by a 9-3 margin.
#5 Brunswick @ #7 Salisbury
- This game is similar to St. Mark’s vs. Rivers but the Connecticut version; these are rival programs who have deep rosters and a legit chance to win the Elite 8. With that being said, the loser of this game might not have the chance (depending on how they do in their final two weeks). Wouldn’t say this is a “can’t lose” game for either team – but it’s as close as that gets.
2/20
Trinity Pawling @ Kent School
- Both teams have a chance at the Large School and both teams are hovering over .500 so wins here do a lot for both teams and a loss might bump them out of position.
2/21
Tabor @ St. George’s
- Tabor is a team on the outside looking in for a berth to the Large School tournament which is in reach and St. George’s is looking to climb into a home ice game in the Small School Tournament. Both are on the table for these teams and a win would help secure that fate.
Frederick Gunn @ #5 Brunswick
- The significane of this game depends on Wednesday outcomes; if Frederick Gunn wins on Wed. then this is a critical game for them and if Brunswick loses this is a critical game for them as well. If the reverse happens then this game doesn’t carry nearly as much weight for either team.
#8 Noble & Greenough @ #4 Belmont Hill
- These are ISL rivals going into the final phase of the season with Elite 8 aspirations. A win for Noble & Greenough would put them on firm footing with a good chance at home ice in the Elite 8; a loss could push them down towards the bubble. A win for Belmont Hill would go a long way to push them up the Elite 8 standings and a loss could push them out.
2/22
#6 Rivers @ Middlesex
- Middlesex is a team looking to sneak into the playoffs and is also exactly .500 heading into this game so in that regard alone its a consequential game to the league but also Rivers is doing what they can to get into the Elite 8 mix and will need a win here to do it.
#7 Salisbury @ #13 Avon Old Farms
- The biggest rivalry in prep hockey – motivation will not be needed in this clash of titans but there are playoff implications for both teams which only adds to the game.
Westminster @ #12 Berkshire
- Westminster is trying to get home ice in the Large School and Berkshire is trying to make their way into the Elite 8. Both teams need a win here to accomplish those goals.
Thayer @ Tabor
- Both are teams hovering over .500 currently and both are in the playoff hunt making this game consequential for eachother and the rest of the league.
#5 Brunswick @ Taft
- Both of these teams are coming into this game on the back of other big games; Taft has to face #2 Deerfield on Wed and Brunswick goes to Salisbury – then home against a pesky Frederick Gunn and then their third game in five days against another tough opponent. Taft is capable of playing spoiler here.
#9 Kimball Union @ #11 Cushing
- KUA and Cushing play eachother in a crucial game for both teams. Kimball Union won it all last season and Cushing has been to back to back finals and there is a good chance only one of these two teams get in and the results of this game will be a big reason why. Both of these teams are on the edge of the Elite 8 and need a win here to get into the mix; a loss could potentially be a nail in the coffin (depending how other games go).
Kent School @ Canterbury
- These two teams are just over .500 so a loss in this game could push them down and that would have widespread impacts as both of these teams have played 5+ teams in playoff contention.
NZ’s Take on the Upcoming Week:
We’ll say the quiet part out loud; if the Elite 8 were to take place tomorrow the eight teams who secured spots are NOT the best eight teams in prep hockey (hence our issue with the current rankings system). With that being said, most of the teams on the outside looking-in have a real chance to improve their resume in the final two weeks of the season (Kimball Union, Andover, Berkshire, Holderness and Rivers).
Keep an eye on the .500 teams; we can’t overstate how important those metrics are when all the calculations are tabulated. Wins over .500 teams or better are weighted higher than those who are not and the JSPR calculation includes opponents record and opponents – opponents record to best understand the strength of schedule. This is always confusing to fans when a team goes 5-0-0 down the stretch and gets passed by a team that goes 3-1-1 down the stretch – it matters less about the record and the quality of the wins. JSRP specifically counts record against the top 16 teams in RPI. Therefore teams on the Top 16 RPI bubble Berkshire, Avon Old Farms, Andover, Governors, Thayer, Westminster, Tilton, St. George’s and Kent will have MAJOR implications on who makes the Elite 8. For example, Salisbury sits at #7 in JSPR – they have a tie against Andover but if they are replaced in th Top 16 by Westminster, whom Salisbury has an 0-1 record against than that alone would bump Salisbury to a tie at 8th with two other teams and would likely be out of the Elite 8. One of the linch pins in the current Elite 8 is #16 Thayer who Belmont Hill has a 1-0-1 record against and Cushing has a 1-0-0 record against; if they are bumped from the Top 16 -that would bump Cushing and potentially Belmont Hill out of the Elite 8 (depending on who replaced Thayer at #16.
Lastly, the Elite 8 has been dominated by two teams; Kimball Union and Salisbury. These two teams have won 9 of the last 11 Elite 8 Championships! The other two schools were Avon Old Farms (’23) and Frederick Gunn (’16).
There is a very real scenario that there could not be a single school who has won the Elite 8 since 2003 in the Elite 8 playoffs. Could that be a sign of a changing of the guard in the prep ranks with teams like Dexter, St. Mark’s, Noble & Greenough and Brunswick fighting to break into that tier. If the season ended today there would be 6 of the 8 teams in the Elite 8 from the state of Massachusetts. It’s been 13 years since a Massachusetts school has won the Elite 8 (Lawrence Academy) and it’s only happened twice in the past 20 years.
Dexter is looking like a solid #1 seed heading into the final weeks – could they be the first school in over 20 years to win an Elite 8 without a single Canadian on their team?
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling, Hickling Images