As we head into the final week of the New England Prep Hockey regular season – there are still several playoff implication games left to be played and sorted before the true playoff picture can be revealed. The bottom of the Elite 8 is up for grabs as are the road spots in both the large and small school playoffs. We’ll break it down here.
The Elite 8 is determined by a different ranking system than the Large and Small School playoffs (a deeply flawed calculation at that). The Elite 8 uses the JSPR – which takes into account the top 16 teams in RPI, their head to head performances against those teams as well as record against mutual opponents.
So where do things stand heading into the final week.
The Top 16 Teams in RPI (as of Sunday 2/23/25)
- Deerfield
- Dexter
- Cushing
- Belmont Hill
- St. Mark’s
- Salisbury
- Rivers
- Brunswick
- Noble & Greenough
- Holderness School
- Kimball Union
- Berkshire
- Andover
- Avon Old Farms
- Governors
- Thayer
Teams on the Bubble of the Top 16:
Tilton, Taft, St. George’s, Westminster, Groton, Kent, Trinity Pawling
Elite 8 is hard to predict in that – given the current JSPR system – the determination won’t necessarily come down to how teams in contention do but rather who makes the final few spots of the Top 16 in RPI. For example, if you swap out Thayer with Westminster – you get a different Elite 8 with that one single change.
The Large and Small School are a little easier to determine so we’ll look at each playoff and break it down.
Elite 8
The Elite 8 can be divided into three levels: the teams that are practically locks, the teams that are somewhat safe, and the teams that are on the bubble.
Practical Locks: Deerfield, Cushing and Dexter. Despite Deerfield being #1 there is a chance that both teams they are playing could sneak into the Top 16 (Westminster and Kent) so while they currently hold the top rank – losses to both those teams, if they can get into the Elite 8 could be problematic for Deerfield. They would still likely make the Elite 8 but could be playing their first game on the road.
Moderately Safe: Belmont Hill, St. Mark’s, and Salisbury These teams are not playing anyone currently in the Top 16; Belmont Hill actually might have the toughest slate because it matches up against playoff-bound Tabor and Top 16 bubble team Westminster.
On the Bubble: Rivers, Brunswick, Noble & Greenough, Holderness and Kimball Union. Two of these five teams will be in the Elite 8 and there is a chance it could be three of these teams. Rivers and Brunswick do not face a top team to help (or hurt) their resume so it will come down to the teams below them and how they play (and how their common opponents play). Noble & Greenough have a bit of a dilemma in that they have Governors on the schedule who would be a Top 16 teams that would improve their resume, but by beating #15 Governors, it could bounce them out of the Top 16, which would eliminate that resume builder. This, again, is an issue with the JSPR system – you get nearly no credit for beating the #17 team, but you get treated almost equally to beating #1 as you do #16. Either way the team that has the best conditions set for them is Holderness – they will face #2 Dexter in the final week and they will also compete in the Lakes Region playoffs which, they could play Tilton or Kimball Union or both; who could potentially both be in the Top 16 in RPI when it’s all said and done which gives them, potentially, three quality resume opportunities to advance to the Elite 8. Kimball Union, who had a two-goal lead against Cushing and looked to be on their way back to defend the title, ended up getting beat and thought their fate was sealed. However, they, too, might have an opportunity to defeat Tilton and Holderness (or at least one of them on the way to the finals), which could be just enough to leapfrog the teams above them. The chances aren’t great, but they aren’t zero, either.
Large School
Again, this depends on WHO makes the Elite 8 but if we assume it will be as it is today, with Rivers and Brunswick getting the final two spots then this would be the breakdown of the Large School:
Practical Locks: Noble & Greenough, Avon Old Farms, Andover. Despite being #3 at the moment in the large school; Andover is probably the safest of the other teams as Nobles and Avon have games against playoff bound teams which could shake their RPI. None of these teams will be booted out of large school – it’s more a consequence on seeding.
Moderately Safe: Taft, Thayer, Governors. Of this group Taft andThayer are the most safe – it will come down to seeding for those two however Governors has the highest risk playing against two playoff bound teams in Nobles and Cushing which could help them considerably or hurt them.
On the Bubble: Westminster, Kent, Trinity Pawling, Tabor. Two of these four teams will make it into the playoffs. Westminster has the biggest risk and the biggest opportunity playing three games this week, two of which against Elite 8 teams (Belmont Hill and Deerfield). Kent also has a good opportunity to improve their resume with a game against Deerfield. Trinity Pawling has three games this week and might have to run the table to get in but with games against Taft, Brunswick and Millbrook – they’ll certainly have that opportunity. Tabor has a game against Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy; they might need a few things to happen in front of them but they are not heading into the final week.
Small School
If we assume the Elite 8 being what it is tonight – then this would be the Small School Breakdown.
Practical Locks: Kimball Union, Holderness, Berkshire. These teams are in and KUA and Holderness – depending on the Lakes Region Championship have a chance to elevate to the Elite 8 with a strong finish.
Moderately Safe: Tilton and St. George’s. Both of these teams can lock in home ice with a strong close to the season and even if they stumble will be in the Small School it will just come down to what seed are they.
On the Bubble: Groton, Pomfret, Winchendon, Canterbury, Frederick Gunn. Three of these five teams will make the tournament; as it stands now Groton, Pomfret and Winchendon have the best chacne however Frederick Gunn has three games in the final week against .500 plus competition and Canterbury has two games including one against Avon Old Farms.
The Most Critical Games for JSPR & RPI
2/24/25
Winchendon @ Portsmouth Abbey – both teams are within one game of .500 and will have RPI implications on all the teams they played this year.
Pomfret @ Avon Old Farms – both are currently in Small and Large School playoffs respectively but Pomfret is on the bubble and Avon is trying to secure home ice.
2/26/24
Westminster @ Frederick Gunn – Both of these teams are fighting for playoff berth and Frederick Gunn is also within one game of .500 which will have implications for all the playoff bound teams that have played them this year (of which there are a lot).
Taft @ Trinity Pawling – Taft is fairly safe in the Large School but Trinity Pawling is on the bubble and will need a win here to climb over the teams ahead of them.
Avon Old Farms @ Canterbury – Avon is looking to get home ice in the playoffs and Canterbury is fighitng for a playoff berth.
St. George’s @ St. Mark’s – This game probably matters more for St. Mark’s than it does St. George’s but they are both playoff bound teams with seeding implications.
Middlesex @ Groton – Groton is probably safe for Small School but a win for Middlesex would move them to a .500 team and put Groton on the bubble in the small school.
Andover @ NMH – Andover is trying to secure home ice in the large school tournament and NMH is on the outside looking in for playoff aspirations.
Holderness @ Dexter – This is likely the game of the week as Dexter has fallen slightly from their #1 rank after falling to St. Paul’s and Winchendon and Holderness has an outside chance of making the Elite 8 but will need to win this game in order to pull it off.
Deerfield @ Kent – Deerfield would like to hold onto it’s #1 rank heading into the Elite 8 and Kent would like to improve its seeding and secure their spot in the Large School playoffs.
Tabor @ Belmont Hill – Tabor will need a win here to sneak into the Large School playoffs and Belmont Hill will likely need a win here to secure home ice in the Elite 8.
Noble & Greenough @ Governors – Both of these teams are home ice teams in the Large School playoffs and a win will likely secure that fate and a loss could put it in jeopardy.
2/28/24
Deerfield @ Westminster – Westminster is a bubble Large School playoff team in need of a win here.
Frederick Gunn @ Northfield Mount Hermon – Both of these teams are within a game of .500 and as a result this game could have RPI consequences for all the teams they’ve played this season.
Brunswick @ Trinity Pawling – Brunswick and Trinity Pawling are both on the bubble for their respective playoff brackets and can’t afford any losses down the stretch.
Cushing @ Governors – Cushing is looking to keep their spot as a home ice team in the Elite 8 and Governors is trying to do the same in the Large School.
St. Mark’s @ Groton – A major rivalry game; St. Mark’s likely needs a win here to secure their spot in the Elite 8 and Groton may need a win as well to secure a berth in the small school playoff.
Andover @ Exeter – A great rivalry game – Exeter is out of the playoff picture but Andover is likely in need of a win to secure home ice in the Large School playoff.
Salisbury @ Winchdenon – Salisbury doesn’t have much room for error down the stretch to secure Elite 8 berth and Winchendon is in the same boat for the Small School playoffs.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling / Hickling Images