It’s the best time of year in Prep School Hockey – Playoff Time! Neutral Zone’s scouting staff will break down each of the upcoming playoff matchups. Our scouts have seen each team remaining multiple times and will give insider info on styles of play, key matchups in the game, and some statistics to help preview the games.
Elite 8
#8 Westminster (14-5-6) @ #1 Salisbury (23-3-0)
Salisbury: Salisbury is the clear #1 this year heading into the playoffs. Their only NEPSHIA losses on the season were on December 3 and December 5; since then they are 21-0. They have played 3 of the teams in the Elite 8, including Westminster, and won by a margin of 20-6. During their 21-game win streak (against NEPSHIA opponents), they have scored an impressive 119 goals or 5.66 per game average. The obvious strength of this team is their depth, particularly up front, their size and strength, and their ability to score goals. The Knights have the most dominant offensive attack in the league; they can roll four lines which is a major advantage that most teams, even in the Elite 8, don’t have, and they are big, fast and physical.
Key Players: This team has 13 NCAA D1 commits and uncommitted Dean Bauchiero is one of the best ‘02s in the league. Also, Michael Fairfax is making the case to get some looks so it could very well be 15 before it’s all said and done. This team doesn’t rely on one line or one player; its scoring by committee with 14 players having double digit point totals on the season. Their most impactful player is likely Luke Krys (Brown) on the backend and up front, their top line of Nick Capone–Justin Hryckowian–Lucas Mercuri has been really hard to handle for opposing teams, but they have major talent up and down the line up.
Westminster: Westminster played two excellent playoff-type games to get themselves into the playoffs, tying both Gunnery and Deerfield in their final games. They are 10-1-4 in their last 15 games and are 1-2-2 against Elite 8 competition. Westminster enters the playoffs battle tested with a tough schedule in their last half of the season and they have a nice combination of speed, size, balance, and depth. In their last 9 games, they have given up just 8 goals against, so this is a team that is taking care of business in their own end led by goaltender Ian Shane and one of the best defensive units in prep hockey.
Key Players: Their two top prospects are UConn commits, Ignat Belov (F) and Malik Alishlalov, (D) but they have depth at every position. Defenseman Will Gilson, Ned Blanchard, Ryan Pineault are three excellent two-way defenders. Up front, Jordie McKenna and Jacob Monroe have been leaders. Watch out for their second line of Nate Pane– Sean Clarke–Darion Benchich who are more than capable of putting up points. In their recent games however, their most influential player has been between the pipes in Ian Shane.
Analysis: These two teams played on January 12 and Salisbury won 8-3 at Westminster. Now, Salisbury will play at home with playoffs on the line. Salisbury is the obvious favorite and justifiably so given they are the bigger team, they are the faster team, they have more talent and more depth; however, Westminster was 4-3-2 going into that Salisbury game and have since made a 10-1-4 to close out the season. Point being, this is not the same Westminster team Salisbury faced earlier in the season. Salisbury intimidates and beats up their opponents (cleanly) to the point our scouts have noted opponents being timid and scared. Westminster will not be timid or scared; they are a scrappy team, they have older players with some experience and they have a comparable blue line and more consistent goaltending. Westminster is also older and their top 4 defenders are all returners where many of Salisbury’s top players are first year players and younger. With that being said, Salisbury is as well coached as anyone in the league and their depth gives them a considerable advantage in this game as Westminster has a drop off after their second line and rarely used their fourth group against Gunnery and Deerfield. Salisbury, on the other hand, can roll 4 lines all game, so the longer the game goes the more advantage Salisbury gains with fresher legs.
Key Matchup: Salisbury’s forwards against Westminster’s defense. Westy is one of the better defensive teams in the league allowing just 2.32 GAA in one of the tougher schedules in the league and are recently averaging under a goal per game in their last 9. Salisbury can score and they have proven that against top teams. If Salisbury can score and make it a shootout game, Westminster doesn’t have the firepower to go back and forth. If Westy can slow it down, clog up lanes, and make it a low scoring affair, they could pull off the upset with their goaltending and defensive game.
Salisbury wins if……they play their game and their goaltending and defense don’t have blow ups like they did against Millbrook (8 GA), Hotchkiss (7 GA), and Kent (6 GA).
Westminster wins if……Ian Shane stands on his head and they can keep the Knights off the scoresheet and capitalize on their opportunities.
#2 Kimball Union (27-4-2) vs. #7 Gunnery (22-5-3)
Kimball Union: KUA, the defending champions with several returners off that team, looked human this year after going 1-3-0 in a stretch through mid-December, but have since gone on to a 22-1-2 record in their next 25 games! What is more impressive than their record has been their versatility. They have closed wins against Exeter 2-0, NMH 2-1, and can grind out wins or open up the floodgates and have scored 5 or more goals in 14 of their 25 games. Their record against Elite 8 competition is 2-1-0, so despite 27 wins they haven’t played a ton of top ranked teams. KUA’s best attributes are their depth, size, and skating ability. They can roll 3 lines all game, they have a deep defensive group, and solid goaltending. There are no real holes in this team and they are strong enough to mix it up with anyone, fast enough to skate with anyone, and have the killer instinct to win big games.
Key Players: KUA has a nice combination of top line talent like Brian Carrabes (BU), Arlo Merritt (Ohio State), Kyle Penney (Cornell), Christian Felton (Bentley), and Tomas Mazura (Providence), but they have another layer of uncommitted talent in Sullivan Mack, Paul Dore, Drew Bennett, Zach Taylor, Teddy Griffin, and Devan Newhook, who will make a difference in this game. Goaltender Veeti Kohvakka has quietly climbed his way up the leaderboards with a .932 SV%.
Gunnery: Gunnery is a team that had a little stumble early in the season starting 1-2-0 and then went on to a 14 game unbeaten streak (13-0-1). Then, they had back to back losses to Millbrook and Salisbury before going on another 11 game unbeaten streak (9-0-2) until losing their last game of the season against Berkshire. The positive for this team is how they are built; they have good size, they can really skate and they are a good combination of skill and grit. They have talent up and down the lineup: a goalie who can steal a game, a blue line that is tough to play against, and some skill to run power plays and an offensive attack that is three lines deep and plays hard. The negative is that they have only played 2 games this season against Elite 8 level competition. A tie to #8 Westminster and a 9-3 blowout loss to #1 Salisbury.
Key Players: Alex Jefferies is a candidate for Player of the Year and they have 14 players in double digit point totals on the season. Their top line guys, Robert Cronin (UNH), Alex Jefferies (Merrimack), Mark D’Agostino (UConn), Jimmy Rayhill (Cornell), will shoulder a heavy load, but like KUA, their secondary group of uncommitted players like Mason Beecher, Alex Coady, Riley Brennan and Case Kantigas could end up being the difference.
Analysis: This is going to be a very good game between two teams who are built for playoff hockey with deep rosters, plenty of talent and grit, and no real holes on either squad. KUA has the slight advantage given they have had to beat a few more higher caliber teams and they have a lot of experience returning from last year’s championship. They also head into the playoffs after winning the Lakes Region Championship and on a 16 game unbeaten streak (14-0-2) including wins over 2 Elite 8 teams and 12 other playoff bound teams, making up 14 of their last 16 wins over teams in the playoffs!
Key Matchups: KUA’s defense vs. Gunnery’s offense. KUA has given up 3 goals or more in just 3 of the last 16 games. Gunnery has scored 3 goals or more in 10 of their last 11 games. Both teams are actually built pretty similarly with really good top lines, great depth in the second and third lines, talented blue lines that are physical, and quality goaltending.
KUA wins if…..they can find ways to score. They haven’t been offensively explosive against the better teams this year, but they also only allowed a total of 4 goals against in 3 games against Elite 8 teams including #1 Salisbury. So, history shows that they’ll slow teams down and make it tough to score, but they need to capitalize offensively when chances arise.
Gunnery wins if….they can keep KUA to 3 goals or less. Gunnery has not lost a game this season to a team that scored 3 goals or less.
#3 Lawrence Academy (19-2-6) vs. #6 Northfield Mount Hermon (22-5-2)
Lawrence Academy: One of the most interesting teams we have seen in prep in recent years in that they started the year tying 6 of their first 16 games, but didn’t lose a game until February 8 against St. Sebastian’s. They are a versatile and skilled team and have a deep bench with all the elements to make a playoff run: size, physical, talented and balance from the net to the blue line to the forward group. They have the skill to play in skill games and they have the size and toughness to grind out wins and get dirty goals. They have proven they can win big games with a 2-1-1 record against Elite 8 competition.
Key Players: The team has 7 D1 NCAA commits so hard to pick only a few, but players like David Sacco (UNH) and Riley Duran (Providence) are first year players who bring a size and physical component to their roster and make them tougher to play against. Returning top line talents in Braden Doyle (BU), Sam Colangelo (Northeastern), Tyler Young (Providence) and Connor Sweeney (UNH) will provide a lot of the offense and Drew Bavaro (Bentley) will anchor the backend.
Northfield Mount Hermon: NMH lost the top goalie in the league last year and return to make an Elite 8 appearance. Coach Kevin Czepiel makes another strong case for Coach of the Year candidate with the job he’s done with this squad as they have only 2 NCAA D1 commits and have a 2-2-0 record against Elite 8 teams and a 5-2-1 record against other playoff bound teams. In their last 18 games, they are 15-1-2 over that span with their only loss being a 2-1 game against #2 KUA. The Hoggers have wins over Exeter, Andover, Tilton, Avon and Dexter during that stretch. They have given up just 44 goals against this season in 29 games, which is the second lowest goals against average in the league. They are not as deep as other Elite 8 teams, but they are disciplined, mature, play an honest two-way game, and have 3 lines they can play. Goaltending and team defense has been the story this season, with starter Connor Hasley sporting a .938 SV%.
Key Players: Their team isn’t a one man show. They have an impact player at each position. Goaltender Hasley has been their best player all years, Michael Kennedy is their leader and runs their blue line and power play, and Devon Tongue is their best forward as he can make plays and also has the size and puck protection to be hard to defend against. They have 4 players in double digit goals: Devan Tongue, Jack Quinn, Ean Small and Theo Hembre. They will all be key in this contest.
Analysis: These two teams have already played this season, which was at the EG Watkins Tournament at Cushing Academy on December 29 where Lawrence won 4-3 (OT). Colangelo was the star as he tied the game late and scored in overtime to seal the victory. Both teams had 32 shots on net and the game went into overtime. Both teams have faced some adversity since then and both teams have shown they can win big games. Lawrence has more talent, as they have more size and strength and they have some high-end talent that can change a game. NMH, however, is more disciplined. They have older players and are built from the goal out. NMH is 8-0-1 in their last 9 heading into the playoffs and Lawrence is 6-1-0 in their last 7, including a big revenge rematch win against St. Sebastian’s. Home ice for Lawrence makes a difference because their students turn out well and their barn is tough place to play.
Key Matchup: NMH defense/goaltending vs. Lawrence’s offense. Lawrence can score. In fact, they have scored an average of 3.62 goals per game and have scored 3 or more goals in 19 of their 27 games and never lost scoring 3 or more goals. NMH on the other hand has given up just 3 goals against or more in 3 of their 29 games. If Lawrence can penetrate their defense and get pucks in the net it will be hard for NMH to win; if NMH can defend and limit their chances, then they could steal it.
Lawrence will win if….they can get traffic in front of Hasley and score gritty goals around the net. If they can make this into a scoring dual they have the advantage and have never lost scoring 3 or more goals this season.
NMH will win if….they can shut them down defensively and hold them to under 3 goals. NMH has given up 3 or more goals only 3 times this season. If they can make it low scoring, boring game, they have the advantage.
#4 St. Sebastian’s (19-5-0) vs. #5 Dexter (21-3-4)
St. Sebastian’s: Seb’s was riding a 9-game win streak before losing the final game of the season on the road to Lawrence Academy in a rematch game. They have scored an average of 5 goals per game in their last 10 and have a 4.41 goals per game average on the season, which is among the very best in the league. They have a potent offense with 3 talented line who can all skate and make plays. They have a combination of young highly skilled playmakers mixed with veteran players with more size and speed. Defensively, they aren’t overly physical or tough to play against, but have skill on their blue line and can push the puck up ice and join the attack. What makes the Arrows a legitimate contender is their ability to posses the puck and play a skilled game. They make plays, can stretch the ice with their skating and passing ability, and have great special teams.
Key Players: Jayden Struble (Northeastern) is a candidate for Player of Year. He is one of the most talented players in the league and can take over a game at this level. However, he has a deep supporting cast up front with 7 NCAA D1 commits in Tommy Lyons (Harvard), Liam Devlin (UNH), Liam Gorman (BU), James Davenport (Brown), Liam Connors (BU), Tim Delay (BC) and Jack Hughes (Northeastern). That doesn’t even include three of their more impactful players in forward Connor Joyce and defenders Thomas Messineo and Ryan MacDermott.
Dexter School: Dexter is a team that is finally healthy heading into the playoffs and poised for a run as they have gone 15-0-2 down the stretch, with their last lost coming in 2018 to NMH. They have given up the least amount of goals of any team in the league, led by Derek Mullahy, one of preps best netminders with a .940 SV%. The team is fast and skilled and look to play an up-tempo game. They also can score, averaging over 4.5 goals per game and only 1.32 goals against for an impressive +3.18 margin. They play a puck possession game similar to Sebs and can skate and use their team speed to push the pace and open up the game. They have scored 4 goals or more in 13 of their last 17 games and haven’t had a loss this year when scoring 4 or more. Defensively, they aren’t very big but they can skate. They break pucks out really well and can create offense from the blue line. Their goaltender can steal games and is the best goalie in the Elite 8. Also, not to take lightly, John Farinacci, highly regarded NHL draft pick, is back from injury and is arguably the most dynamic player in the league.
Key Players: They have arguably the best forward in the league in John Farinacci and the best goalie in the league in Derek Mullahy. Couple that with a really strong supporting cast in skilled two-way defenders, Ben Meehan (Umass Lowell) and John Fusco, as well as speed/skill forward in Chase McInnis (Northeastern), Ben Raymond, Aidan Connolly and Culin Wilson.
Analysis: For fans of an open-ice, high skill, high speed game, this is the one to go watch. This will not be a chip and chase affair. These teams possess the puck, they make plays and they create scoring chances. Their defenseman can skate and have the ability to move the puck up ice and activate offensively. This game could be a high scoring type of affair with the skill these two teams have. It shouldn’t be overly physical, as these teams are not very big and don’t play that style. Dexter has a slight advantage, given their goaltending and a little more experience, but St. Sebastian’s is deeper offensively and has more of talent up front.
Key Matchup: St. Sebastian’s Offense vs. Dexter’s Defense – You have arguably the most talented offensive teams in prep hockey in St. Sebastian’s going against the league leader in goals against average in Dexter. The key matchup will be the Arrows top 9 forwards against Derek Mullahy. Jayden Struble and John Farinacci are arguably the two very best players in the league and they’ll likely play well as they always do, but they can only do so much. Mullahy is the biggest factor in this one.
St. Sebastian’s wins if….they can generate offense in zone. Seb’s is excellent on the rush and in transition. They have a great power play, but Dexter’s blue line is mobile and Mullahy makes the first stop, so they’ll need to score and create chances in zone with rebounds and traffic around the net.
Dexter wins if….they can shut down the Arrows offensive attack and take their depth away by getting pucks behind their defenseman and making them defend.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images