As we hit the final day of the NEPSHIA regular season teams are gearing up to play their last games. Some games matter more than others and there is a list of potential outcomes depending on how certain teams play.
Late tonight there will be number crunching in backrooms to figure out the exact playoff seeding but we wanted to give coaches, players and fans a look into what today has in store and what implications those games have on the playoff seedings.
**Neutral Zone Prep is an independent provider of stats, scores and recaps. This is not official standings and should not be used as such. NEPSHIA will ultimately determine playoff seedings based on their own calculations.
Game of the Day
Westminster vs. Deerfield: As it stands right now, the winner of this game will be the bottom seed of the Elite 8 and the loser will likely be the #1 seed in the Large/Small School tournament depending on which team wins.
If Deerfield wins……
- Small School Impact: Holderness or Pomfret could be booted from the Small School as Westminster would move from Elite 8 to Small School and thus knocking out a bottom seed.
- Large School Impact: Avon, Cushing and Hotchkiss; Hotchkiss is on the outside looking in and Cushing and Avon would likely secure their Large School fate with a Deerfield win.
- Elite 8 Impact: Deerfield will likely secure the #7 or #8 seed in the Elite 8 Playoffs
If Westminster Wins:
- Small School Impact: Holderness and Pomfret would likely secure the playoff berth but St George’s and Millbrook are also contenders who both play today and wins could also propel them in.
- Large School Impact: This would likely secure Avon and Cushing and would open the door for Hotchkiss, Thayer and Taft to grab a bottom seed depending on today’s results.
- Elite 8 Impact: Westminster is in, Deerfield is out.
If they tie:
- Several scenarios could occur here based on how these formulations are calculated and how other teams play today but most likely a tie benefits Westminster more than Deerfield. However, a tie here and a win for Tilton over KUA could potentially bump BOTH teams out of the Elite 8. This doesn’t look likely but it’s possible.
Major Impact Games
Exeter vs. Andover
Elite 8 Impact: Currently Andover and Exeter are TUC (teams under consideration) in the JSPR Rankings but a loss for either team could potentially bump them out of the TUC which would re-calculate the entire JSPR rankings. It won’t have a major impact in regards to the top few teams but it will certainly impact the bubble teams, especially Deerfield, Westminster and Tilton who have played them. A win for either team will likely not be enough to propel them into the Elite 8, even if Deerfield and Westminster tie and Tilton loses.
Large School Impact: Exeter and Andover are both pretty much locked in the Large School Playoffs but this game will have major ramifications for home ice in the first round and seeding.
KUA vs. Tilton
Elite 8 Impact: Tilton is on the outside looking in at the Elite 8; a win over KUA would certainly help their chances but would likely need a tie between Deerfield and Westminster who currently sit above them. A loss of Exeter and Andover could change things in regards to TUC calculations and that would also have an impact but they beat Exeter so they don’t want them out of the TUC.
Small School Impact: Very little, Tilton is a lock in the small school and will have home ice. It could impact seeding but they are likely the #1 seed either way.
Groton vs. St. Marks
Small School Impact: Both teams are fighting for home ice in the Small School tournament; in fact, these teams could end up playing one another in the first round, especially if they tie today.
Proctor vs. New Hampton
Small School Impact: Like St. Mark’s and Groton, these teams could face each other again in the Small School playoffs. A win for New Hampton could improve their seeding (depending on what happens in the Groton vs. St. Mark’s game) but both teams have practically cemented their playoff berth.
Pomfret vs. Williston Northampton
Small School Impact: This game matters more than you’d think at first glance. Pomfret is currently the bottom seed in the Small School so if they lose this game and Westminster loses to Deerfield than their season is likely over. If they can win against Williston it could bump them over Holderness where the Deerfield vs. Westminster game wouldn’t matter to them. A tie would likely come down to the Deerfield game. Also, Williston Northampton is one game under .500 so a win in this game for Williston would bump them up to .500 which would have major RPI implications and would impact the following playoff potentials who have beaten Williston this season: Cushing, Gunnery, St. Sebastian’s, Nobles and NMH.
St. George’s vs. Middlesex
Small School Impact: St. George’s is on the outside looking in at the Small School playoffs; however, they are one game under .500 so a win here would have RPI ramifications which would not only impact them but other teams they have played this season. Playoff contenders impacted would be: NMH, Thayer, Proctor, Groton, Dexter, Rivers and St. Mark’s.
Hotchkiss vs. Taft
Large School Impact: These are the two teams battling to get into the Large School Playoffs. If the season ended today they would be #9 and #10. Also to consider, Taft is one game under .500 so a win for Taft would have major ramifications in the RPI to the teams they played. Both teams will be cheering for Deerfield to beat Westminster to open up a spot in the Large School. They will also likely be cheering for Loomis to beat Avon which would open up another opportunity to potentially get in. If they both tie it would depend on several other factors on if either or neither get in. Of the three options; tie, Hotchkiss win, Taft win; the Taft win would have the most ramifications because of its impact on other teams being .500. Both teams have a playoff chance with a win today.
Trinity Pawling vs. Millbrook
Small School Impact: Millbrook is on the outside looking in for the bottom seed of the Small School Playoffs. They are also one game under .500 so a win for them will have impacts among other playoff potentials including Pomfret, Kent, Hotchkiss, KUA, Tilton, St. George’s and Gunnery. Millbrook will likely need Westminster to win and Pomfret to lose in order to make the playoffs but there is a chance.
Avon vs. Loomis
Large School Impact: If the season ended today they would advance to the Large School Playoffs; however, a loss today would likely bump them out given there are good teams biting at their heels. A win likely secures their playoff positioning.
Photo Credit: Dan Hickling/Hickling Images